Remembering two epic winter storms in the nation's capital

 

A parked car in Bethesda, MD (January 24, 2016)

Three of DC's 10 largest snowstorms occurred in January. Two of these happened relatively recently in 2016 and 1996. Check out this article I wrote for the WUSA9 website for details.

DC’s warm start to January

 

NOAA's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

January 2023 has gotten off to an unusually warm start in the nation’s capital. None of the first 12 days of the month were colder than average. That’s very unusual for what is traditionally the coldest month of the year. Two of the last three January’s have been warmer than average in Washington, D.C., so local residents have become used to milder than average weather in recent winters.

This month began with five consecutive days of high temperatures in the 60s. The nation’s capital has averaged only between two and three January days in the 60s over the last 30 years. According to the National Weather Service, the total of five days in the 60s so far this month has given Washingtonians their highest such total since 2018, which featured eight such days.

Record warmth occurred on January 3 with a high of 69° at National and Dulles Airports. Temperatures like that are more characteristic of mid-April than early January. Not only has DC’s average monthly temperature (combining daily high/low temperatures) been 10.6° above average through January 12, but it has also been a drier than average month with only 0.18” of rain so far (0.94” below average). It’s hard to see any snowfall when it’s both warmer and drier than average.

Consequently, signs of spring have already begun to emerge in parts of the DMV (D.C., Maryland Virginia) such as daffodils poking above ground in parts of Bethesda, Maryland. Weather can change quickly, so it’s much too early to write off winter altogether.

The coldest time of the year based on average temperature in the nation’s capital starts tomorrow. The daily average high/low temperatures are 44°/30° for a six-day stretch from January 14 – January 19.  While temperatures will be near average tomorrow, with breezy conditions making it feel colder, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects warmer than average weather to continue for the next 1-2 weeks. That would put the nation’s capital on track to possibly finish with one of the warmest January’s on record.

Winter weather enthusiasts shouldn’t fret, however, as appreciable snowfall can occur well into March in the DMV.  In fact, March has been DC’s snowiest month of the year four times over the last decade (the same number of times as January). March 2014 saw an eye-popping 12.7” of snow that made for DC’s snowiest March since 1960. More recently, 4.1” of snow fell at National Airport on March 21, 2018, with a daily record of 4.8” at Dulles Airport.

Weather Quiz

 

True or False.

January and March have each been D.C.’s snowiest month of the year four times over the last decade.

How Unusual is January Severe Weather ?

 

January 3, 2023 Severe Weather Reports (Source: NOAA)

The atmospheric ingredients required for severe weather are most common during the spring and summer months.  NOAA defines a “severe” thunderstorm as one that has one or more of the following: wind gusts of at least 58 mph; hail 1”/+ in diameter; or a tornado.  Although isolated cases of severe weather are possible in January, they are rare.  Here are a few notable January severe weather outbreaks in recent years:

2023: A modest severe weather outbreak began on December 29, 2022, and continued through January 3, 2023.  A total of 212 severe weather reports occurred during this six-day stretch for an average of approximately 35 instances per day.  Of those 35 daily severe weather reports, an average of six were tornadoes.  This outbreak was concentrated in the Tennessee Valley and the southeastern United States.  Fortunately, no fatalities were reported.

2022:  Eight confirmed tornadoes, along with 26 reports of severe wind gusts, occurred on January 15-16.  Three injuries were reported but there were no fatalities.  Most of the tornadoes developed in Florida, with the strongest being an EF-2 that had estimated winds of 111-135 mph on January 16.  This tornado outbreak has been compared to the deadly Florida outbreak of February 1998 when seven overnight tornadoes claimed 42 lives.

2020:  A massive severe weather outbreak occurred on January 10 – 11 with nearly 1,200 severe weather reports.  Almost 1,100 of those reports were for severe wind gusts from Texas to Virginia.  In addition, there were 87 confirmed tornadoes, including 11 confirmed fatalities and 30 reported injuries.  This would be a significant severe weather outbreak for any month, but it stands out during the month of January for two reasons.  Not only did a significant amount of severe weather occur, but it happened over an unusually large geographic area. 

2017:  More than 500 reports of severe weather, including more than six dozen tornadoes, occurred across the southeastern U.S. from January 19 – 22.  Unfortunately, some of these tornadoes caused a total of 25 fatalities according to NOAA.  

2008: Another rare January severe weather outbreak happened on January 7 – 11, 2008 and featured over 300 severe weather reports.  Roughly a third were tornadoes.  This round of severe weather caused five fatalities over the five-day period.  This severe weather struck from the Midwest to the East Coast.  The scope of this event was unusual since the Midwest is usually in a deep freeze in January.

Some at-risk communities don’t have tornado sirens.  So, a good investment for your family would be a NOAA weather radio that can alert you to looming danger – day or night.

2023 Gets Underway

 

 

The Nation’s Capital experienced record December cold for the first time since 1989 when the high temperature on Christmas Eve reached only 22°.  Last month was D.C.’s first wetter than average month since July with 3.86” of rain officially at National Airport.  December is also the first month of meteorological winter and has segued into January. 

January is the coldest month of the year in the Nation’s Capital with an average monthly temperature (combining daily high/low temperatures) of 37.5°.  That’s an increase over the previous average of 35.7°.  During the 2020-2021 winter season, NOAA updated its temperature and precipitation averages to reflect the 30-year period of 1991-2020.  Since the 2010s were a much warmer decade than the 1980s, it’s not surprising that January’s average temperature increased by 1.8° when the 2010s replaced the 1980s that were used in NOAA’s previous data set (1981-2010).

D.C.’s coldest time of the year based on average temperature occurs in mid-January.  The daily average high/low temperatures in the Nation’s Capital are 44°/30° for a six-day stretch from January 14 – January 19.  Six of the last 10 January’s have been cooler than average in Washington, D.C.  January 2022 was D.C.’s coldest since 2014.  The warmest January temperature on record was 79° on January 26, 1950.  By comparison, D.C.’s coldest January temperature was -14° on January 1, 1881. 

Washington, D.C. had below average precipitation in seven of the last 10 January’s.  That includes D.C.’s fourth driest January on record in 2018 (0.94”).  Not surprisingly, NOAA’s January rainfall average for Washington, D.C. dropped from 2.86” to 2.81” in the updated climate data set.  Six of the last 10 January’s also saw below average snowfall.  That’s led D.C.’s January snowfall average to fall from 5.6” to 4.9”.  However, January 2022 had 12.3” of snowfall and was D.C.’s snowiest month since January 2016.

Since D.C. Area residents haven’t had much snow in recent winters, it’s important to remember January doesn’t have to be colder than average to be snowier than average.  January 2005, for example, was a snowier than average month in the Nation’s Capital with 6.4” of snow, but it also finished 0.1° warmer than average.  It’s also significant to note that following D.C.’s snowier than average January last year, the Nation’s Capital hasn’t had consecutive snowier than average January’s since 2009-2010.

NOAA expects this month to be warmer than average with near average precipitation.  However, the right ingredients need to come together only once to produce an epic winter storm as what happened in January 2016 with D.C.’s fourth largest snow event on record.