Sunday, December 20, 2015

Environmental Protection Captures the World’s Attention


Flag of the United Nations


Nearly 200 countries met in Paris at the 2015 Climate Conference sponsored by the United Nations earlier this month.  Leaders reached an historic agreement to reduce emissions of atmospheric pollutants such as carbon and sulfur dioxides.  The primary sources of man-made emissions of such compounds come through the production of energy and in transportation.

World leaders approved a framework agreement to help reduce emissions starting in 2020.  Although this agreement is the first of its kind, some advocates don’t think it goes far enough in reducing carbon emissions, while others have concerns about the cost of using cleaner technology.  

Prior initiatives have only called on the industrialized nations of Europe and North America to reduce emissions, while large developing countries in Asia and South America were exempt.  Past attempts to institute a widespread “carbon tax” have also failed.  A carbon tax wasn’t part of this new accord reached in Paris though.  However, some places such as the Canadian Province of British Columbia do have a carbon tax that’s levied on the carbon content of fuels.

Most scientists believe the Paris agreement – calling for the reduction in emissions of carbon and other pollutants – is necessary to limit any further rise in global temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius.  Living more sustainably is something that everyone should be doing anyway – irrespective of where they live.  Using alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power to produce electricity is essential.

Americans can reduce their carbon footprint by driving less and choosing to take public transportation, combine trips and walk or bike when possible.  Driving a fuel-efficient vehicle and recycling are also important.  There are things homeowners can do such as using appliances labeled “Energy Star” that are certified as being energy-efficient.  Many jurisdictions also offer tax credits as an incentive for using “Energy Star” certified appliances.  Plus, there is the tangible benefit of lower power bills for using appliances that require less electricity.  

There is a scientific consensus that man-made pollution has significantly increased since the Industrial Revolution and should be reduced.  In my view, curtailing pollution through more sustainable living is something everyone should be doing anyway.  The ground-breaking agreement reached in Paris made this a similar goal for communities around the world.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Warmest December Ever?


Late December Temperature Outlook  (Source: NOAA)

The first half of December has been one for the record books across much of the eastern United States. Through December 16, this month has had an average temperature (combining daily highs and lows) of 50.3 degrees at National Airport. That’s almost 9° warmer than the December average in Washington, D.C. Multiple record highs have been set across the DC Metro Region.

The nation’s capital has had seven days with high temperatures of at least 60° so far this month – including a six-day stretch of at least 60° (December 10 – 15). That’s the warmest such stretch since December 1998. According to the National Weather Service, the warmest temperature so far this month came on December 13 when it was 71°. It also hasn’t been “freezing” yet this month. Although it was 32° once last month, the last time temperatures were below 32° in the nation’s capital was March 29 when it was 28°.

Following the second warmest November since 2000 in the nation’s capital, December has been so warm that some flowers are in bloom – including some autumn cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin. A cold front will pass through the Mid-Atlantic Region today and that will knock temperatures down closer to average tomorrow and Saturday. Saturday will even be slightly colder than average with highs in the low 40s.  

If that holds true, Saturday would be only the third day this month with temperatures at or below normal levels. Despite the brief cooldown the next few days, temperatures will promptly return to near average levels on Sunday before becoming warmer than average again next week. According to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the entire East Coast has an 80% to 90% chance of above average temperatures for the later portion of this month.

The warmest December on record in the nation’s capital occurred twice – in 1984 and 1889 – when the monthly average temperature was 45.6 degrees. There is a good chance this month will surpass that to become the warmest December on record. It’s important to note, though, that a warmer than average December is not a good indicator of what the rest of the winter will feature. The last two December's have been warmer than average in the Mid-Atlantic Region, but a significant shift in the position of the jet stream helped make January colder than average in both 2013 and 2014.

New Record Highs (Source: NOAA)

December 12:

Baltimore, MD (BWI Airport): 71° (tied the existing record)




December 13:

Washington, D.C. (National Airport): 71° (tied the existing record)
Dulles Airport, Sterling, VA: 73°
Baltimore, MD (BWI Airport): 72°




December 14:

Dulles Airport, Sterling, VA: 69°
Baltimore, MD (BWI Airport): 71° (tied the existing record)

Monday, December 14, 2015

Hurricanes During 2015 - 2016


Hurricane Joaquin near the Bahamas, October 2015  (Source: NASA)

In typical El Nino fashion, the 2015 hurricane season was quieter than average in the Atlantic Ocean.  At the same time, the eastern and central Pacific Ocean saw above average tropical activity.  The Eastern Pacific hurricane season ended in mid-November, and had a 2015 total of 18 named tropical storms, 13 hurricanes and 9 major hurricanes.  The National Hurricane Center said the central Pacific Ocean saw its busiest season on record with 14 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

Scientists at both Colorado State University and National Hurricane Center predicted this in light of the increasing strength of El Nino during the summer and fall months.  Although the Atlantic Ocean had its strongest hurricane since 2010, Joaquin was one of only 11 tropical storms that developed this year – including 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.  That’s below the 30 year average (1981 – 2010) of 12, 6 and 3.  

However, it’s significantly lower than the 17 year average of 16 tropical storms, more than 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes that occurred during the active period in the Atlantic Ocean from 1995 - 2012.  2015 was the third consecutive season with near or below average tropical activity.  For the three year period of 2013 through 2015, only 12 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic – the lowest such total since 11 developed from 1992 through 1994. 

Another way scientists measure energy in tropical storms and hurricanes is “Accumulated Cyclone Energy” or “ACE,” which is a measure of a storms potential for destruction from wind and storm surge.  For the month of September 2015 – which is typically the busiest month of the hurricane season – the ACE value was 11.  During the last three Septembers, the combined ACE value was only 44 for the Atlantic Ocean Basin – the lowest such three year value in roughly 100 years.  No major hurricane has made landfall in the United States since 2005.  Florida hasn’t felt the impact of any hurricane since 2005 either – the longest such streak on record.  

Will the 2016 hurricane season also see above average activity in the eastern Pacific?  Will less tropical activity continue in the Atlantic Ocean?  That’s largely dependent on the status of El Nino next spring and summer.  If El Nino diminishes in the spring, then that would correlate to a higher potential for an above average season in the Atlantic Ocean.

Friday, December 11, 2015

December Warmth


NOAA's Temperature Outlook for mid-December



As expected, this month has gotten off to a warmer than average start.  That’s largely because the position of the jet stream has been much farther north than is typical for this time of year.  Therefore, warmer than average temperatures have enveloped much of the eastern United States.  In fact, all but two days so far this month have been warmer than average.

That’s going to continue for the next several days as temperatures are poised to be in the 60s today and around 70 degrees tomorrow and Sunday.  By contrast, average temperatures are only in the mid-40s in the Nation’s Capital in mid-December.  In fact, some record highs are in jeopardy this weekend.  According to National Weather Service data, there have been only four instances during the last fifteen years where there have been three or more consecutive days with high temperatures in the 60s in December.

The weather pattern so far this month has been quite typical for a winter dominated by a strong El Nino event.  That’s not good news for snow lovers.  Buffalo, New York, which typically sees more than 90” of snow in a given year hasn’t seen any measureable snow yet this winter.  That’s a record for latest in the season without snowfall.  Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest has seen record flooding and mountain snowfall.  As many know, the entire West Coast has been mired in a multi-year drought so going from extreme drought conditions to getting record precipitation has created a plethora of problems including flooding and landslides.

In the Mid-Atlantic Region, NOAA’s temperature outlook for the next ten days calls for the warmer than average temperatures to continue.  Although Washington, D.C. has had measureable snowfall in ten of the last fifteen Decembers, that doesn’t appear likely this month.  Warmer than average conditions are expected to continue by and large into 2016.  

 
Record Highs In Jeopardy (Degrees Fahrenheit)


December 12:

Washington, D.C. (National Airport): 71 (1873)
Dulles Airport, Sterling, Virginia: 72 (1979)
Baltimore, MD (BWI Airport): 71 (1979)




December 13:

Washington, D.C. (National Airport): 71 (1889)
Dulles Airport, Sterling, Virginia: 71 (1984)
Baltimore, MD (BWI Airport) 69 (1889)