DC's unusual February weather

 

A fine February day at Great Falls (Maryland side)

This month is well-positioned to finish as DC's ninth consecutive February with below average snowfall.  It will also be the seventh warmer than average February over the last eight years.  With a combination like that, it isn't a mystery why Washingtonians have seen so little snow in recent February's.  That's despite February typically being DC's snowiest month of the year based on NOAA averages.

The first 16 days of February 2024 were all warmer than average in the nation's capital.  February 17 was DC's first colder than average day since January 22.  The fact temperatures remained above average for almost an entire month illustrates why local winter weather enthusiasts have been so disappointed this winter.

According to NOAA, the nation's capital averages 5.0" of February snowfall (based on the 30-year average of 1991-2020).  Washingtonians have seen an average of just over an inch of February snowfall for the period of 2016-2024.  No measurable snowfall occurred in the nation's capital in February 2017, 2020 or 2022.  Only 0.1" of snow has fallen so far this month in the nation's capital.  My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather team aren't expecting any local snowfall for the rest of the month.

Washington, D.C. has experienced only one cooler than average February since 2017 and that was in 2021.  During that time, DC's warmest (2017) and third warmest (2023) February's have occurred.  February 2017 had six days with highs in the 70s in the nation's capital, while last February had seven days with highs in the 60s.  Such temperatures aren't average in the nation's capital until April.

Although there have been several stretches of unusually cold weather in the nation's capital during recent February's, those periods have been few and far between.  DC didn't see consecutive cooler than average days this month until it was more than half over on February 17-18.  Meanwhile, the nation's capital hasn't had consecutive February days with highs at or below freezing since 2021. 

While some of this warmer than average weather can be attributed to the urban heat island effect, it's more a reflection of the weather patterns across the United States over the last several years.  A warmer than average February with below average snowfall doesn't always mean March will feature more of the same type of weather.  For example, March was colder than February in both 2017 and 2018. 

March 2017 and March 2018 were also the snowiest months of the season in the nation's capital.  This helps illustrate that while February has been trending warmer with less snowfall than average, DC Area winter weather enthusiasts shouldn't give up hope for March.

Ranking DC's historic Presidents Day snow events

 

Ironically, five of DC's 10 largest winter storms have occurred within a week of Presidents Day and snow is in tonight's forecast. Check out this story I wrote for the WUSA9 website for more details.

Deadly February severe weather

 

Severe weather for parts of the Deep South today (Source: NOAA)

 “Severe weather” is defined as a thunderstorm that contains any of the following: hail 1” in diameter or larger; wind gusts of 58 mph or greater; or a tornado. Severe weather is less common in the United States during the colder winter months than it is during the rest of the year. However, it’s more frequent during February as compared to December or January.  

When severe weather does occur in February, it can most often be found on or near the Gulf Coast. That’s because weather conditions are more favorable for it there than other parts of the country. Nevertheless, some February outbreaks have occurred in other parts of the United States, making them very unusual.

2023: A two-day severe weather event occurred across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley on February 26-27. Over 300 severe weather reports were recorded by NOAA with the majority being severe wind gusts.  Wind gusts as high as 95 mph was observed in Jetmore, Kansas, and 114 mph in Memphis, TX. A total of 32 tornadoes were also recorded by NOAA. Fortunately, there were no fatalities.

2020:  A rare severe weather outbreak occurred on February 7 in the Mid-Atlantic Region. The National Weather Service confirmed that five tornadoes touched down between 7:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. in the DC Metro Area. Maryland, Virginia and DC don’t typically see tornadoes during the month of February.  

An EF0 occurred in Leesburg, Virginia and had winds of 85 mph. It was on the ground for three minutes with a track of 3.3 miles. According to National Weather Service records, this tornado broke the previous record of April 16 (1993, 2011) for earliest Loudoun County tornado.

There also was an EF1 in Montgomery County, Maryland, near the town of Dickerson that had wind speeds of 95 mph and a track of a mile. Two more EF1 tornadoes occurred: one each in Frederick and Carroll counties.

2016:  An even larger severe weather outbreak occurred on February 24. More than 30 tornadoes touched down between Pennsylvania and Florida. There were three confirmed fatalities due to an EF1 tornado in Sussex County, Virginia. A powerful EF2 tornado with 125 mph winds also occurred in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. That followed the nearly 70 tornadoes that developed on February 23 along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which caused a total of six fatalities.

2008:  A severe weather outbreak from February 4 – 6 included over 600 cases confirmed by NOAA, with more than 130 tornadoes. The most active of the three-day period was February 5 when over 500 cases of severe weather were reported from Texas to West Virginia. A severe weather outbreak that covers that much geography is more common in April or May. What made this severe weather outbreak especially tragic was that 28 people lost their lives.