Memorial Day and Atlantic Hurricanes

Satellite view of the Atlantic Ocean Basin  (Source: NOAA)

The Memorial Day weekend symbolizes the unofficial start of summer and is the first major beach weekend of the season.  It’s also an important time for coastal residents to review safety procedures and preparedness for the upcoming hurricane season which runs from June 1 through November 30 in the Atlantic Ocean.  Although the majority of tropical storms and hurricanes form between mid-August and mid-October, there have been many significant storms that have occurred earlier in the year.

Named storms can also develop before hurricane season begins.  Such was the case this past January when Hurricane Alex developed.  Alex was the first January storm in the Atlantic since Alice in 1955.  Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are currently monitoring an area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas that has a good chance of becoming the next named tropical storm on the list, Bonnie.

Hurricanes and tropical storms are most frequent in August, September and October since that’s when conditions tend to be the most favorable with warm ocean water (sea surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit is the common benchmark) and favorable winds in the tropics (namely light winds or an absence of wind shear).  Scientists look at global weather patterns for clues to how busy a given hurricane season will be.  For example, a powerful episode of El Nino helped make the 2015 hurricane season quieter than average in the Atlantic Ocean.  However, as El Nino dissipates, some suspect that 2016 will be a busier hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean. 

While some respected groups – such as Colorado State University and Accu-Weather – have already issued their seasonal hurricane forecasts, NOAA is set to issue its forecast for the upcoming hurricane season today.  Only 7 tropical storms have developed in April or May since 1985.  History shows that having a named storm develop before hurricane season begins doesn’t always correlate to a busier than average hurricane season.  For example, Tropical Storm Ana developed in May 2015 but last season was appreciably quieter than average. 

People tend to hear more about early season tropical storms and hurricanes because they tend to form closer to land in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea where ocean temperatures warm up more quickly.  The close proximity to land also means that they’re more likely to impact a given land mass.  Tropical Storm Beryl in May 2012 and Tropical Storm Allison in June 2001 both had significant impacts in the United States.  The key lesson as the Memorial Day holiday weekend gets underway is to stay tuned to your area meteorologists and local authorities whenever a tropical system poses a risk.