What's Special about Tropical Storm Colin?

NOAA's Projected Track for Colin

The National Hurricane Center just named the third tropical storm of the young 2016 hurricane season on June 5.  Colin developed in the Gulf of Mexico and is headed toward the northwest Florida coast.  Fortunately, Tropical Storm Colin is not expected to intensify into a hurricane but will likely cause flooding given the heavy rain it will bring.

Although June is typically a quiet month of the Atlantic hurricane season, 2016 has been a somewhat unusual year.  Alex became the first January hurricane since 1955 and Tropical Storm Bonnie brought the Carolinas appreciable rainfall last month.  According to distinguished atmospheric scientist Dr. Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University, Tropical Storm Colin became the earliest third Atlantic named storm on record when it developed yesterday breaking the old record of June 12, 1887.

Having three named storms so early in the season, doesn’t necessarily mean this will be an above average hurricane season.  In fact, NOAA’s forecast for the 2016 hurricane season is for a near average season.  Assuming Colin remains below hurricane strength as is forecast, that would continue an ongoing trend of the last ten years.  Not since Hurricane Wilma in October 2005 has a major hurricane – Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale – made landfall in the United States.  Not only was Wilma the last major hurricane to make a U.S. landfall, but Wilma was also the last hurricane to make landfall in Florida.  This is the longest period on record that Florida has gone without a landfalling hurricane. 

There have been several busier than average hurricane seasons in the last 10 years – most notably three consecutive seasons of 19 named storms (2010 – 2012) – but the United States has been relatively fortunate.  Although seven hurricanes made landfall in the United States since 2006, none were “major” hurricanes. However, it doesn’t take a major hurricane to cause significant damage, as was seen during Hurricane Ike in 2008 and Hurricane Irene in 2011.  According to the National Hurricane Center, Ike weakened to a Category 2 and Irene weakened to a Category 1 before their landfalls in the United States.  But, they both rank among the costliest U.S. hurricanes on record.

Although Florida hasn’t seen a hurricane since 2005, there have been a total of seven tropical storms to make landfall in the state of Florida since 2006.  The last tropical storm to make landfall in Florida was Tropical Storm Andrea – exactly three years ago on June 6, 2013.  Tropical Storm Colin is poised to become the most recent and will continue the so-called hurricane drought in the United States.