Putting This Week’s Cold Into Perspective

NOAA's Temperature Outlook for Mid-December

Although it will be colder than average over much of the next week in the Nation’s Capital, the cold won’t approach record levels.  But, the combination of gusty winds and below normal temperatures will produce especially cold wind chills.

Unless you’re a snow lover, you will be happy no snow will accumulate with these below average temperatures.  That’s not to say the occasional snow flurry won’t occur in spots, but no accumulating snow is on the horizon in the DC Metro Region.  That’s unlike recent Decembers, such as in 2009 when the largest December snowstorm on record occurred in Washington, D.C. (with 16.4” at National Airport on December 18-19).

Over the last 25 years, December has had some dramatic temperature swings in the Nation’s Capital.  For example, Washingtonians experienced two separate streaks in December 1995 when high temperatures remained under 40 degrees (December 10 – 14 and 19 – 28).  That contributed to making the month more than four degrees colder than average.  One of the warmest December’s on record occurred just three years later.  That warm trend was set early in the month with four consecutive days with high temperatures in the 70s (December 4 – 7).  In fact, the high temperature of 79F on December 7, 1998 was Washington, D.C.’s warmest December temperature on record.

By comparison, with an average monthly temperature of 31.8 degrees (combining daily high and low temperatures), National Weather Service data indicates December 2000 was the fourth coldest on record since National Airport opened in 1941.  Just a year later, December 2001 tied for third warmest on record in the Nation’s Capital.  Both the 2000-2001 and 2001-2002 winters featured less than half the average amount of annual snowfall in Washington, D.C.  This illustrates the fact that December temperatures are not a good indicator of what the entire winter will feature.

Both November and December 2015 were significantly warmer than average in the Nation’s Capital, but last winter went on to become snowier than average.  In fact, it was the snowiest January in two decades.  While the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region have already seen some significant snowfall this month, the DC Metro Region will not see any over the next week.  However, my colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather team are expecting below average temperatures for much of the next week.  Also, today is poised to be Washington, D.C.’s first day since March 20 that high temperatures remain below 45 degrees.