March Comes to a Cold Conclusion

 

Although March 2022 will finish as a significantly warmer than average month, the last few days have felt more like January than March.  Overall, 19 of the first 30 days of March have been warmer than average, including 8 days highs in the 70s and low 80s.

Large fluctuations in temperature have occurred throughout the month.  D.C. residents went from an April-like high of 63° on March 11, to a January-like low of 24° on March 12 with 0.9” of snow officially at Reagan National Airport.  A few inches also fell in the suburbs north and west of town.  March has been D.C.’s snowiest month of the year four times over the last decade, most recently in 2018.  The coldest temperature this month of 21° occurred on March 13, compared to the warmest temperature of 80° on March 7.  D.C.’s average March temperature (combining daily high/low temperatures) is 50.6° through March 29.

The Nation’s Capital averages 3.50” of March rainfall according to NOAA’s updated weather averages for the 30-year period from 1991-2020.  However, only 2.75” has fallen as of March 29.  Unless a significant amount of rain occurs tomorrow, this month will finish as a drier than average March in Washington, D.C. for the sixth time in the last decade.

Aside from the large swings in temperature, this month’s major weather theme is how warm it’s been overall.  That led to an earlier than average peak bloom of D.C.’s cherry blossoms.  The National Park Service said the D.C.’s famous cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin reached “peak bloom” on March 21.  That’s compared to a recent 30-year average of March 31.  According to the National Park Service “peak bloom” occurs when 70% of the buds bloom at the Tidal Basin.

DC’s Warmest March’s (Source: NOAA)

1. 56.8° (2012)
2. 56.2° (1945)
3. 55.5° (1921)
4. 53.5° (2016)
5. 53.2° (2020)
6. 53.0° (1946)
7. 52.7° (1977)
8. 51.7° (2000)
9. 51.5° (1979)
10. 51.3° (1976)

DC’s Coldest March’s (Source: NOAA) 

1. 34.5° (1885)
2. 35.4° (1872)
3. 35.6° (1960)
4. 37.4° (1888)
5. 37.6° (1906, 1883)
7. 37.7° (1892)
8. 37.9° (1916)
9. 38.5° (1896, 1887)

Weather Quiz

 

Hurricane Emily, July 2005  (Source: NOAA)

True or False

March is one of only two months that no named tropical storms have occurred in the Atlantic Ocean Basin (including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea).

A Sneak Peak of Hurricane Season

 

Hurricane Lorenzo, September 2019  (Source: NOAA)

Although the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t officially get underway until June 1, a new NOAA report contains a big clue as to what kind of season could occur in 2022.  NOAA said on March 10, there was a 40% - 50% chance La Nina conditions will continue into the fall.  That would have significant repercussions for the tropical Atlantic.

La Nina helps create ideal conditions for tropical storm formation because it is characterized by above average sea surface temperatures and a below average amount of wind shear (i.e., winds that differ in direction with altitude).  The busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons often occur during episodes of La Nina.  Even ENSO neutral conditions (neither El Nino or La Nina) tend to feature more favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic then El Nino conditions.  The tropical Atlantic sees below average activity during El Nino events (circa 1992, 1997, and 2015).

While the presence of La Nina or El Nino are major drivers of tropical activity, there are other factors to consider as well.  The presence of atmospheric dust that sometimes travels west from central Africa into the tropical Atlantic can impact tropical storm formation.  The presence of above or below average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean Basin are also important factors to consider.  The Atlantic Ocean Basin includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

Every Atlantic hurricane season since 2016 has been busier than average.  However, the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes is less important than where they develop and track.  For example, this summer will be the 30^th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which remains one of the strongest and costliest hurricanes to ever make landfall in the United States.  Ironically, it was the only major hurricane in what was an otherwise quieter than average Atlantic hurricane season.  By comparison, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was very active during a strong episode of La Nina.  Fortunately, the United States didn’t see any direct impacts from the 12 hurricanes that developed in 2010.

Another trend that bears watching this spring is whether or not 2022 becomes the eighth consecutive year at least one named storm develops before the official June 1 start of the season.  While having named storms develop early often foreshadows an active hurricane season, that isn’t always the case.  For example, a subtropical storm developed in April 1992, which was a quieter than average season.  Distinguished scientists at NOAA and Colorado State University will issue their forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season later this spring.