NOAA’s Spring Outlook

 

NOAA's Spring Temperature Outlook

 

This week NOAA issued its seasonal spring forecast that officially gets underway on Sunday.  March 20 is the spring equinox and the official start of astronomical spring.  That’s different than “meteorological spring,” which runs from March 1 – May 31.  Astronomical spring runs from the spring equinox to the summer solstice (June 21).

Its forecast calls for a 40%-50% chance of above average temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic Region.  That would be consistent with the weather in the D.C. Metro Area over the last six weeks.  Since February 1, Washington, D.C. had 34 days that were warmer than average (or roughly 75% of the total).  Consequently, the National Park Service expects D.C.’s cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin to reach peak bloom early next week (March 22 – 25).  D.C.’s earliest and second earliest peak blooms of the cherry blossoms occurred on March 15, 1990, and March 17, 2000. 

A continuation of warmer than average spring weather would not only bring an earlier than average (April 4) peak bloom, but an earlier and longer allergy season with higher levels of pollen than are typical for this point in the season.  A warmer than average spring in the Nation’s Capital also means increased potential for strong thunderstorms. 

Since D.C.’s warmest March on record in 2012, there has been a 50/50 split with five warmer and five cooler than average March’s.  Meanwhile, March 2022 will likely finish as another warmer than average month.  That would put Washingtonians well on the way to a warmer than average spring season. 

NOAA also expects a wetter than average spring in the D.C. Metro Area.  The combination of warmer and wetter than average conditions is good news for area gardeners.  Periodic rainfall also helps keep the daily pollen count in check for allergy sufferers.  Four of the last five springs have been wetter than average in the Nation’s Capital, so another would continue the recent trend.  A rainfall surplus heading into the summer months is also beneficial. 

The Nationals kick off their 2022 season on Thursday, April 7.  Baseball fans would be thrilled to have warmer than average temperatures with sunny skies for Opening Day.  D.C.’s average high/low temperatures on April 7 are 65°/46°.