Huge Weather Fluctuations

 

Photo Credit: Susan Granzow

March features some of the largest temperatures swings of the year in the Nation’s Capital.  Average high/low temperatures range from 52°/35° on March 1 to 62°/43° by the end of the month.  Moreover, the gap between D.C.’s warmest March temperature (93°) and coldest (4°) is larger than in any other month.

This week has been a good example of how dramatic D.C.’s shift in March temperatures can be.  Following record warmth on March 6 and 7 with highs of 78° and 80° at National Airport, March 9 felt more like early February than early March with a high of only 47°.  Now comes this weekend’s weather, which has been quite dramatic with a rapidly deepening storm that’s coincided with a brief shot of arctic air.  That’s what led to the rapid change from rain to snow this morning after yesterday’s high of 63°.  Lows tonight will plummet to the upper teens to low 20s across the D.C. Metro Area.  

Such large temperature fluctuations are fairly common during the month of March.  This year is the third consecutive year 80° March warmth has occurred.  That’s relatively rare as D.C. hasn’t so much had as much as consecutive March’s with 80° warmth since 2006-2007.  The Nation’s Capital averages four March days with highs in the 70s.  A frigid March day with highs in the 20s has occurred roughly once every five years over the last 30 years.   

There has been some extreme March weather over the last decade.  Such was the case in March 2012, which finished as D.C.’s warmest on record.  It had four days with high temperatures in the 80s.  That includes three consecutive 80° days from March 13 – 15, the longest such streak since March 29 – 31, 1998.  Consequently, D.C.’s famous cherry blossoms reached peak bloom more than two weeks earlier than average on March 20.  

However, just two years later Washingtonians saw a dramatic shift from a record warm March to one of D.C.’s coldest.  Not only was March 2014 D.C.’s coldest since 1996, it was also the snowiest since 1960 with a monthly total of 12.7”.  March 2015 was also colder than average in D.C., but wasn’t as cold as the previous March.  D.C.’s high temperature on March 6, 2015 of 30°, far below the daily average of 53°.  That was also the last time the Nation’s Capital had a daily high temperature that remained at or below freezing on a March day.  The peak bloom of DC’s famous cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin didn’t occur until April 10 in both 2014 and 2015, a week later than average.

More recently, there was 4.1” of snow on March 21, 2018, for D.C.’s largest snow total during the entire 2017-2018 winter season.  March 2020 and 2021 were both considerably warmer than average in the Nation’s Capital.  Despite this weekend’s cold and snow, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects warmer than average weather to dominate D.C. weather headlines during the next 8-14 days.