Weather’s Influence on D.C.’s Cherry Blossoms

 

 

The first week of March 2022 has been exceptionally warm in Washington, D.C.  Through March 7, the average temperature was 7.4° above average, including the last two days of record warmth.  That follows last month which finished nearly 3° warmer than average.  This has put the world-famous Yoshino Cherry Blossoms along D.C.’s Tidal Basin on the fast-track to an early bloom.

The National Park Service currently expects D.C.’s cherry blossoms to reach peak bloom between March 23 – March 25.  That’s more than a week earlier than the average date of April 1.  “Peak bloom” is defined as when 70% of the blossoms emerge.  How warm or cold the winter and early spring are determines when they reach their peak. 

The earliest that peak bloom occurred was on March 15, 1990.  That was an unusual winter since November and December 1989 were both cold and snowy in the Nation’s Capital, but January, February and March 1990 were each much warmer than average.  To add to that, high temperatures were at record levels in the 80s on five consecutive days from March 12 – 16, 1990, which helped the blossoms reach peak bloom on March 15. 

By comparison, the latest the cherry blossoms reached peak bloom was on April 18, 1958.  That’s because February and March 1958 were both much colder and snowier than average with a two-month snow total of 27.8”.  More recently, Washingtonians experienced colder and snowier than average February and March’s in both 2014 and 2015.  That contributed to a relatively late peak bloom on April 10 in both years.  On the other hand, a relatively early peak bloom occurred on March 20 in both 2012 and 2020 after a very warm late winter and early spring.

When the buds are developing on the cherry trees, temperatures in the 20s for any length of time can damage them.  Such was the case in March 2017 when, according to the National Park Service, “...a late frost that occurred between March 14 and March 16 caused roughly half of the blossoms to be lost.”  Once they reach peak bloom, gusty winds can reduce the length of peak bloom.  Given ideal conditions, peak bloom can last roughly five to seven days, giving D.C. Area residents and tourists alike ample opportunity to enjoy their splendor.

Large fluctuations in temperature are quite common in the Nation’s Capital in March.  While today’s highs in the low 50s will be nearly 30° colder than yesterday’s record high of 80°, D.C.’s average March 8 high temperature is 54°.  Tomorrow, will be even cooler with January-like highs in the low 40s with a cold rain.  Fortunately, that shouldn’t harm the cherry blossoms because NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects warmer than average temperatures to return the week of March 15 – 21.  That could accelerate the peak bloom to occur even earlier than March 23 – 25.