Atlantic Hurricane Update

Hurricane Earl nearing Belize on 8-3-16  (Source: NASA)

Tropical Storm “Fiona” developed in the Atlantic Ocean this week, but hasn’t been a particularly memorable or intense system.  So far this season there have been a total of six tropical storms, including two minimal (Category 1) hurricanes.  Earlier this month, atmospheric scientists at NOAA and Colorado State University both updated their seasonal hurricane forecasts.

A team of Colorado State University scientists called for an additional 11 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.  A “major” hurricane is defined as a Category 3 or higher storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is characterized by 111/+ mph sustained winds.  NOAA updated its forecast saying there’s a 70% chance for a seasonal total of 12 – 17 tropical storms, 5 – 8 hurricanes and 2 – 4 major hurricanes.  That includes the six tropical storms and two hurricanes that have already developed.  An average hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean includes approximately 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

This has been an interesting season in the Atlantic Ocean so far.  Distinguished atmospheric scientist, Dr. Philip Klotzbach, of Colorado State University noted that tropical storm Danielle became the earliest fourth named tropical storm on record when it developed on June 20.  However, following the fast start to the season July didn’t see a single named storm.  An increased amount of wind shear in the tropics helped create unfavorable conditions for tropical storm development.  Tropical storms and hurricanes require warm water and calm winds – or an absence of wind shear to develop.

There are a few other significant things going on in the tropics.  There hasn’t been a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in nearly three years since Hurricane Ingrid in September 2013, which recently set a new record.  There have been several tropical storms, though, in the nearly three years since Ingrid – including tropical storm Colin that made landfall in Florida earlier this year.

Also, the United States hasn’t had a landfall from a major hurricane in nearly 11 years, since Wilma in October 2005.  That shattered the previous record of six years (1979 – 1985) with a landfalling major hurricane.  Wilma was also the last hurricane – of any intensity – to make landfall in Florida.  Although, there have been more than two dozen (27) major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean since Wilma but the United States has been fortunate that none have made landfall.  While, significant hurricanes like Ike in 2008 and Irene in 2011 have made landfall in the United States, they were not “major” at their time of landfall.

Coastal population and development continue to rise and the longer the streak goes without a major hurricane, the likelihood of complacency among coastal residents will increase.  It’s important to remember the lessons of major past hurricanes such as Charley in 2004 and Katrina in 2005 and be prepared when the streak comes to an end.