Major October hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico

 

Hurricane Opal making landfall, October 1995 (Source: NOAA)

Although the tropical Atlantic gradually begins to quiet down after its September peak, the Gulf of Mexico remains a favored area of development until the end of the season.  Warm ocean water (at least 80° Fahrenheit to a depth of at least 200 feet) is required for a tropical storm or hurricane to intensify under ideal atmospheric conditions. Some of the warmest water anywhere in the Atlantic Basin can be found in the Gulf of Mexico.

Smaller areas of water that features higher sea surface temperatures can sometimes influence hurricane intensity.  The Gulf of Mexico’s Loop Current is a smaller area of warmer ocean water than can influence tropical systems.  There is also something known as a “warm core ring,” which is simply an eddy or localized current of water that breaks off from the main ocean current (like the Gulf Stream or Loop Current) and can linger over an area of a few to a few hundred kilometers.  These warmer waters can provide additional fuel for an intensifying hurricane.  Here are some examples.

Zeta (2020):  Zeta reached peak intensity on October 28 as a major Category 3 hurricane as it made landfall in Louisiana.  Its highest sustained winds were 115 mph with a minimum central air pressure of 970 millibars (mb).  Although Zeta quickly weakened after its landfall, it remains noteworthy for being the latest in the season a major hurricane made landfall in the contiguous United States.  Zeta caused $5.1 billion in U.S. damages (2023 dollars), according to NOAA, along with five fatalities.

Michael (2018):  Hurricane Michael became only the fourth Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States and first since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.  It also remains one of the few hurricanes that intensified up until its landfall.  Michael reached peak intensity as it made landfall along the Florida panhandle with sustained winds of 160 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 919 millibars (mb).  That part of Florida had seen several Category 3 hurricanes, but never a Category 4 or 5 storm.  Michael caused $30.2 billion in U.S. damages (2023 dollars) and claimed 16 lives during the storm, according to NOAA.

Lili (2002): Hurricane Lili reached peak intensity on October 2 while over the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph.  Lili weakened precipitously before its landfall in Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane.  Hurricane Lili caused $1.26 billion in damages (2023 dollars) and two fatalities in the United States, according to NOAA.

Opal (1995):  Opal was one of five major hurricanes to form during the very active 1995 season.  It was also the strongest hurricane of the season as a Category 4 with peak winds of 150 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 916 millibars.  Fortunately, it weakened to Category 3 intensity before making landfall near Pensacola, Florida on October 4.  The DC Metro Area saw severe weather from the remnants of Opal on October 5.  Opal caused $9.3 billion in U.S. damages (NOAA) and 27 hurricane-related deaths according to the CDC.