Will October’s weather be frightful or delightful ?

 

The feel of fall is in the air !

September 2023 finished as a warmer and drier than average month in the nation’s capital.  DC’s average September temperature was a full degree above average largely due to the record-setting heat early in the month.  It was also slightly drier than average despite beneficial rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia. 

Dulles Airport, meanwhile, had its sixth warmest September (2° above average) with its first instance of 100° September heat and finished with its 12^th wettest.  Dulles finished with 6.65” of September rainfall compared with only 3.60” at National Airport.  That helps illustrate how localized much of last month’s rain was, particularly with the remnants of Ophelia.

October is the second of three months of meteorological fall and often features some of the finest weather of the year with mild to warm days and crisp, cool nights.  Average daily high/low temperatures in the nation’s capital range from 75°/58° on October 1 to 64°/46° on Halloween.  D.C. warmest October temperature on record of 98° occurred four years ago today on October 2, 2019. 

D.C.’s coolest October temperature of 26° has occurred twice, most recently on October 31, 1917.  Temperatures at or below freezing in October are quite rare in the nation’s capital and none have occurred since October 20, 1992 (32°).  Eight of the last 10 Octobers have been warmer than average in Washington, D.C.

The nation’s capital averages 3.66” of rainfall with seven of the last 10 October’s having been drier than average.  Weakening tropical systems can sometimes impact the D.C. Metro Area in October with heavy rain and severe weather.  Such was the case with the remnants of Hurricane Opal in 1995 and post-Tropical Storm Sandy in 2012. 

Infrequently, D.C. Area residents can get an early taste of winter with light October snowfall.  Although the nation’s capital doesn’t see enough October snowfall to produce an average amount, a trace of snow (too little to measure) does occur every once in a while, with the most recent such occurrence in 2011.  D.C. earliest accumulating snowfall occurred on October 10, 1979 with 0.3” at National Airport.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects October 2023 to be a warmer and drier than average month in the nation’s capital.  That would be in contrast to last October that finished as DC’s coolest since 2003.