Beware: Another potentially active Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1

 

Pine Island Beach, Florida

NOAA says there is a 60% chance the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be busier than average. 

The May hurricane forecast from NOAA is for a seasonal total of 13 to 19 tropical storms (sustained winds of at least 39 mph), of which 6 to 10 intensify into hurricanes (sustained winds of at least 74 mph), with 3 to 5 of those becoming "major" hurricanes (Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph). That’s greater than the seasonal average of 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. 

NOAA's forecast is similar to the Colorado State University forecast that calls for 17 tropical storms, of which 7 becomes hurricanes, with 4 major hurricanes. Both NOAA and CSU cite the same two primary conditions in their respective forecasts. 

Neither El Nino or La Nina conditions are present in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean Basin. The absence of El Nino in the tropical Atlantic correlates to lower amounts of wind shear than there could be. Wind shear are winds that differ in speed or direction with altitude. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there’s a 74% chance these “ENSO neutral conditions” will continue through August and a 50% chance they’ll continue from August through October. 

Also, hurricanes typically require warm ocean water of sufficient depth to develop, commonly at least 80° Fahrenheit to a depth of 200’. Currently, sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the “MDR” or "Main Development Region" of the Atlantic Ocean. The combination of unusually warm ocean water with a lack of wind shear creates an ideal environment for tropical storm and hurricane development.

Regardless of how many named storms develop, the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes is less important than where they track. An otherwise quiet season could be very destructive and deadly. For example, the 1992 Atlantic season was relatively quiet with only 7 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. But that major hurricane was Andrew, which made landfall in southern Florida as a rare Category 5 storm. Andrew was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history at the time and remains one of the costliest hurricanes on record. Meanwhile, the 2010 season was an active one with 19 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, but with no significant impacts in the United States.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially gets underway on June 1. The first named storm of the season will be “Andrea.”