DC’s changeable October weather

 

NOAA's temperature outlook for late-October

This October has been unusually dry with near average temperatures. Of the 0.48” of rain since October 1, it’s all come in small amounts. If no more measurable rain were to occur this month, then it would finish as DC’s eighth driest on record and driest since 2000.

This dry October weather has continued a recent trend in the nation’s capital. This could become DC’s fifth consecutive drier than average October. The tropics have also been relatively quiet this month and that’s eliminated a common source of heavy rain across the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia).

The first few weeks of October saw weather in the nation’s capital with alternating stretches of above and below average temperatures. Several weak cold fronts passed through the DMV and produced breezy conditions, but not much rain. There have been three days with highs in the 80s in the nation’s capital this October. That coincides with DC’s October average of between three and four such days over the last 30 years, based on NOAA data.

Despite a few chilly days this week, NOAA’s temperature outlook for the final week of October is for warmer than average temperatures for much of the eastern United States. Below average rainfall is also expected the rest of the month. This combination should help October 2025 finish with near to slightly warmer than average temperatures, while acerbating the drought conditions across parts of the DMV.

No correlation exists, however, between October weather in the nation’s capital and what the upcoming winter season will be like. Last October, for example, finished as a much warmer and drier than average month. Meanwhile, the 2024-2025 winter season was both colder and snowier than average in the nation’s capital.

Driest Octobers in Washington, D.C. (Source: NOAA)

1. Trace – 1963
2. 0.02” – 2000
3. 0.28” – 1930
4. 0.29” – 1874
5. 0.34” – 1896, 1892
7. 0.40” – 1920
8. 0.44” – 1924
9. 0.53” – 1882
10. 0.59” – 1998
11. 0.65” – 2011
12. 0.66” – 1952
13. 0.67” – 1928
14. 0.69” – 2001
15. 0.75” – 1934
16. 0.79” – 1909, 1879
18. 0.86” – 1918
19. 0.90” – 2016
20. 0.97” – 1901

DC’s Warmest Octobers (Source: NOAA)

1. 67.1° - 2007
2. 66.3° - 2021
3. 65.2° - 1984
4. 64.9° - 2017
5. 64.7° - 1971
6. 64.5° - 1947
7. 64.4° - 1941
8. 64.1° - 2019
9. 63.4° - 1949
10. 63.3° - 1973
11. 63.2° - 1975, 1919
13. 63.1° - 2023, 2016
15. 63.0° - 2024, 1879