DC’s winter weather outlook

 

Westie's love the snow

The nation’s capital averages 13.7” of annual snowfall, according to NOAA. Sometimes it comes in a series of smaller storms as it did during the 2014-2015 winter season. In other winters, it occurs primarily during one large storm such as during the 2015-2016 winter. Last winter was the first snowier than average winter in Washington, D.C. since the 2018-2019 season. NOAA recently released its winter weather outlook.

There are a lot of factors to consider when preparing a winter weather outlook, such as the status of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, “ENSO.” That refers to the presence of El Nino, La Nina or a neutral phase, or the presence of neither. 

There have been a number of memorable winter seasons that could offer clues as to what might be in store for the 2025-2026 season in the D.C. Metropolitan Area. Sometimes winter arrives early as it did during the 1989-1990 season. November 1989 was 1.6° cooler than average in the nation’s capital and saw 3.5” of snow (appreciably more than DC’s November average of 0.1”). Meanwhile, December 1989 was an astounding 11.8° colder than average in the nation’s capital, making it DC’s coldest since 1917. 

A combined total of 12.5” of snow fell in November and December 1989. However, the weather pattern changed dramatically to being significantly warmer than average when January 1990 arrived. A combined total of only 2.6” of snow fell in the nation’s capital between January 1 and March 31, 1990. That was an ENSO-neutral winter.

On the opposite end of the spectrum was the 2015-2016 winter season.  December 2015 was DC’s warmest on record. The first measurable snowfall of the winter didn’t occur until 0.3” fell on January 17, 2016. Less than a week later, residents of the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) experienced one of the largest snowstorms on record with a total of 17.8” at National Airport on January 22-23. The rest of the 2015-2016 winter season was unremarkable and DC had a seasonal snow total of 22.2”.

A particularly strong El Nino occurred that winter and was a contributing factor in the 2015-2016 winter weather events. Two of DC’s snowiest winters were during the moderate to strong El Nino winters of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010.
 
NOAA’s outlook for the 2025-2026 winter season calls for warmer than average temperatures and near average precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic Region. That’s fairly typical for the La Nina conditions that are currently present, but are expected to transition to ENSO-neutral early in 2026.

That isn’t the ideal setup for above average snowfall in the DMV, but snow-lovers shouldn’t fret since the right ingredients have to come together only once to produce a large snowfall. A snowier than average 2025-2026 winter season would give the nation’s capital consecutive winters with above average snowfall for the first time since 2014-2015 and 2015-2016.