Too early to think about hurricane season?

 

Dewey Beach, Delaware (August 2025)

Although the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t officially get underway until June 1, a new NOAA report has a big clue as to what kind of season it could be. ENSO-neutral conditions (the lack of El Nino or La Nina) are expected to develop with a 55% chance they’ll continue through July. However, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says a 62% chance exists that El Nino conditions will develop before the end of August and continue for the rest of the year.

El Nino, especially a strong episode of El Nino, is known for creating unfavorable conditions for tropical storm formation in the Atlantic. That’s because it’s characterized by below average sea surface temperatures and an increased amount of wind shear (i.e., winds that differ in direction with altitude). The tropical Atlantic saw below average activity during El Nino events (in 2015, 1997 and 1992). On the other hand, the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons often occur during episodes of La Nina. Even ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Nino or La Nina) tend to feature more favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic then El Nino conditions.

While the presence of La Nina or El Nino are major drivers of tropical activity, there are other factors to consider as well. The presence of atmospheric dust that sometimes travels west from central Africa into the tropical Atlantic can impact tropical storm formation. The presence of above or below average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean Basin is also important to consider. The Atlantic Ocean Basin includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Much of the tropical Atlantic, has had unusually warm sea surface temperatures in recent years. That’s lingered into early 2026, NOAA reports.

Having warmer than average sea surface temperatures combined with an above average amount of wind shear in the tropical Atlantic – associated with the anticipated El Nino – is exactly what makes the 2026 hurricane season forecast difficult. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 tropical storms, of which 7 become hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes. A “major” hurricane is a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

However, the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes is less important than how strong they become and/or where they track. For example, this summer will be 34 years since Hurricane Andrew, which remains one of the strongest and costliest hurricanes ever to make landfall in the United States. Ironically, it was the only major hurricane in what was an otherwise quieter than average 1992 Atlantic hurricane season. 

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season also had a below average number of tropical storms (13), but included four major hurricanes. Three of the four major Atlantic hurricanes last season reached Category 5 intensity and that was the second highest total on record. So, a hurricane season can be busy with a higher than average number of named storms or a lower total of named storms, but with a higher number of intense storms. Distinguished scientists at NOAA and Colorado State University will issue their forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season later this spring.