Winter’s last gasp?

 

A chilly late-March morning in Bethesda, Maryland

Although DC’s world famous cherry blossoms reached peak bloom on March 26, the weather has felt more like late-winter this weekend. This morning’s unofficial low of 35° in the nation’s capital was more typical of March 1, then March 29.

Although yesterday’s high temperature of 51° was well below DC’s average of 58°, it was not as cool as some other dates during the second half of March in recent years. For example, on March 21, 2018, DC residents had 4.1” of snow with a high temperature of 36°. The nation’s capital averages 2.0” of March snowfall, according to NOAA, so seeing roughly double that amount on a single day is impressive. More recently, high temperatures remained in the 40s at National Airport on three consecutive days from March 27 – 29, 2022.

This brief return to cooler than average weather will be just that, brief. Of the first 28 days of this month, 20 were warmer than average. DC’s 80-degree warmth on consecutive days earlier this month (March 10-11) helped facilitate an earlier than expected peak bloom of DC’s cherry blossoms. This is the seventh consecutive year peak bloom occurred in March.

Based on National Park Service records that date back to 1921, the average date for peak bloom (defined by the date when 70% of the blossoms emerge) is April 4. However, as average temperatures have increased in recent decades, the average of when the National Park Service declares “peak bloom” has become earlier. Looking at the decades since 1990, the average date for peak bloom is March 30. However, since 2020, the average date is March 23. 

That’s not surprising as six of the last seven March’s have had at least one day of 80-degree warmth in the nation’s capital. This month has already had three days in the 80s and another seven days with highs in the 70s. Such May-like warmth is exactly what’s made this weekend’s chill especially biting. 

Fortunately, following DC’s coldest winter in 23 years, a warming trend has gotten underway today. Today’s high temperatures across much of the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) will be closer to average (near 60°), but could touch 80° for a fourth time before the end of the month.

DC’s warmest March’s (Source: NOAA)

1. 56.8° (2012)
2. 56.2° (1945)
3. 55.5° (1921)
4. 54.3° (2025)
5. 53.5° (2016)
6. 53.2° (2020)
7. 53.0° (1946)
8. 52.7° (1977)
9. 51.9° (2024)
10. 51.7° (2000)
11. 51.5° (1979)
12. 51.3° (1976)
13. 51.2° (2021, 2010, 1910)
 
47.6° - Average