A record-setting hurricane season?

A summer evening along Dewey Beach, Delaware (2025)

The Atlantic Ocean is fast-approaching setting a new record for the latest a hurricane season has gone without a hurricane. The existing record for latest the first hurricane has developed is September 11. Since NOAA’s National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect any named storms to develop this week, this season will eclipse the long-standing record.

The three previous times the Atlantic’s first hurricane developed on September 11 was in 2013 (Humberto), 2002 (Gustav) and 1984 (Diana). Each season featured a near to below average amount of tropical activity. Only 2002 had a moderate episode of El Nino. That’s unlike the current El Nino that’s already strong and is expected to strengthen further by the end of the year. That means conditions will remain largely unfavorable for tropical storm and hurricane development.

This season has already had four short-lived tropical storms, and such below average tropical activity in the Atlantic is commensurate with a moderate to strong El Nino. However, this hurricane season has approached uncharted territory without a hurricane since last October. NOAA expected this hurricane season to be a quiet one given the intensifying El Nino, but it wasn’t expected to be this calm.

Although there have been quiet seasons before, there hasn’t been a season in the satellite era, dating back to the 1960s, without a single Atlantic hurricane by September 11. That’s an important distinction since there were almost certainly storms that remained undetected over the open ocean before there were weather satellites that could identify them.

It’s also worth noting that some past quiet seasons, still produced storms that were damaging and deadly. Such was the case when Hurricanes Andrew (1992) and Alicia (1983) each made devastating landfalls in the United States.

September 11 is also significant for being the climatological peak of the hurricane season when atmospheric and environmental conditions are traditionally the most favorable for development. However, the tropical Atlantic remains unusually quiet. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30.