Recent snow trends in the nation’s capital

 

Lexie during the Blizzard of 2016 (Bethesda, Maryland)

With largely above average temperatures expected to continue for the remainder of February, this month is all but certain to finish as DC’s eighth consecutive February with below average snowfall.  This trend led to DC’s February snowfall average to fall to 5.0” from 5.7” when NOAA updated its averages in early 2021. 

DC’s snowiest winter on record was in 2009-2010.  All 10 of DC’s snowiest winters were colder than average based on seasonal averages for December, January and February.  Those three months are considered “meteorological” winter.

Although 14 of the last 20 winters have seen below average snowfall in the nation’s capital, four of DC’s 10 largest winter storms occurred over the same time period.  February 2010 finished as DC’s second snowiest February and second snowiest month, overall, with 32.1”.  More than half of that total came from “Snowmageddon” (17.8”).  More recently, the January 2016 winter storm also produced 17.8” to tie for DC’s fourth largest snowfall.

Several of DC’s 10 largest snowstorms occurred during warmer than average winters, such as the 2015-2016 winter.  This underscores how the right ingredients need to come together only once to produce appreciable snowfall.  However, that’s become less common in the nation’s capital during the last several years.

In the seven years since the “Blizzard of 2016,” there has been a combined total of only four snowier than average months in Washington, D.C.  At the same time, six of the last seven winters have been warmer than average in the nation’s capital.  That includes DC’s warmest December (2015) and February (2017), along with a number of other winter months that have ranked among DC’s warmest.

This trend for sustained warmer than average winter weather combined with below average snowfall is not positive for winter weather enthusiasts.  The 2022-2023 winter season is well-positioned to continue that trend.  The only glimmer of hope for Washingtonians longing for snowfall is the knowledge that March is the only month whose snowfall average increased (2.0” up from 1.3”) when NOAA updated its precipitation averages to reflect 1991-2020.  That’s because the nation’s capital has had above average March snowfall five times over the last decade.

DC’s snowiest winters (Source: NOAA)

1.  56.1” (2009-2010)
2.  54.4” (1898-1899)
3.  46.0” (1995-1996)
4.  42.5” (1921-1922)
5.  41.7” (1891-1892)
6.  41.0” (1904-1905)
7.  40.4” (2002-2003, 1957-1958)
9.  40.3” (1960-1961)
10.  39.8” (1910-1911)

DC’s coldest winters (Source: NOAA)

1.  29.0° (1904-1905)
2.  29.4° (1903-1904)
3.  29.5° (1917-1918)
4.  29.8° (1880-1881)
5.  30.8° (1935-1936)
6.  31.0° (1892-1893)
7.  31.3° (1919-1920)
8.  31.7° (1894-1895)
9.  31.9° (1962-1963, 1884-1885)
11.  32.0° (1876-1877)

Is February DC's snowiest month?

 

February snowfall has been lacking in recent years (Bethesda, MD)

With a monthly average of 5.0”, February is narrowly ahead of January for being the snowiest month of the year in the nation’s capital. Not surprisingly, six of DC’s 10 largest snowstorms have occurred in February. Check out this story I wrote for the WUSA9 website for details.

Bone-Chilling February Cold

 

A Frigid Morning in Washington, D.C.  (Courtesy: Robin Beal)

Although not as cold as Midwestern cities like Chicago or Minneapolis, the Nation’s Capital has experienced significant February cold in its own right during the last 20 years.  Following a low of 19° at 11:59 PM on February 3, D.C.’s high/low temperatures on February 4 were a frigid 33°/16°.  However, the cold start to this month pales in comparison to recent cold waves.  Here are some that are worth remembering.

2016:  Temperatures remained below freezing on five consecutive days from February 11 – February 15.  This remains the last time that’s occurred in the Nation’s Capital during any month.  With an average high temperature of 29.2° during this five-day period, the coldest day occurred on February 14 with a high/low temperature of 26°/13°.  Although this cold stretch of weather occurred less than a month after the record “Blizzard of 2016,” no significant snowfall accompanied this frigid weather in the D.C. Metro Area.

2015:  This February finished as D.C.’s coldest since 1979 with an average monthly temperature (combining daily high/low temperatures) nearly 10° below average.  The coldest weather of the month occurred during a nine-day stretch from February 13 – February 21 when high temperatures remained below freezing on all but two days.

According to the National Weather Service, D.C.’s low temperature of 5° on February 20, was not only a record low for the date, but was D.C.’s first record low during the month of February since 1970.  D.C.’s average high/low temperatures this nine-day period in 2015 were 27.7°/13.0°, compared to average daily high/low temperatures for this period from 48°/31° on February 13 to 50°/33° on February 21.

2010:  The six-day period of February 5 – February 10 was significant not only for being cold, but also featured two record-setting snowfall events.  “Snowmageddon” occurred on February 5-6 with 17.8” at National Airport.  There was another 10.8” of snow on February 9-10.  D.C.’s warmest temperature during these six days was 37° on February 5, with highs remaining at or below freezing on three other days.  The coldest day of the six was February 7 with a high/low of 32°/16°.

2007:  The coldest stretch of weather during the 2006-2007 winter season occurred during a six-day period in early February.  D.C.’s warmest temperature from February 4 – February 9 was 34°, according to the National Weather Service.  D.C.’s average high/low temperatures during this period were 29.2°/15.5°.  The coldest day was February 5 with a high/low of 22°/13°.  This February finished with a slightly above average snow total of 5.9” in the Nation’s Capital.

1996:  The 1995-1996 winter season finished as one of D.C.’s snowiest on record.  In addition to the record-setting “Blizzard of 1996” in early-January, significant cold occurred in early February.  In fact, the coldest weather of the entire winter occurred from February 1 – February 6.  D.C.’s average high/low temperatures during this period were 25.2°/13.0°.  The coldest days were February 4 (17°/10°) and February 5 (21°/5°).

D.C.’s Cold Start to February

 

A Cold Day in Washington, D.C.

January 2023 finished as the third warmest on record in the Nation’s Capital and warmest since 1950.  It was also a drier than average month with below average rainfall and no measurable snowfall for the first time since 2006.  Last month was also the warmest January on record at Dulles Airport and was also its driest since 2008.

No sooner had the calendar flipped to February, then accumulating snowfall arrived in the early morning hours of February 1.  All three D.C. Area airports saw their first measurable snowfall of the winter season.  The 0.4” at National Airport was the first accumulating snowfall there since March 12, 2022. 

February is D.C.’s snowiest month of the year on average with 5.0”, according to the National Weather Service.  Six of D.C.’s 10 largest snow events have occurred in February with the most recent being “Snowmageddon” in February 2010.  However, Washington, D.C. hasn’t had a snowier than average February since 2015. 

February is also the driest month of the year on average in Washington, D.C. with a monthly rainfall average of only 2.62”.  However, four of the last five February’s have been wetter than average in the Nation’s Capital.  Above average rainfall would be beneficial this February, since five of the last six months have been drier than average dating back to last August.

Average daily high/low temperatures range from 46°/30° on February 1 to 52°/34° on February 28.  Five of the last six February’s were warmer than average in the Nation’s Capital.  That includes D.C.’s warmest February on record in 2017.  In a rare set of circumstances, February was warmer than March in the Nation’s Capital in both 2017 and 2018.

D.C.’s coldest February temperature occurred on February 11, 1889 (-15°).  By comparison, D.C.’s warmest February temperature overall was 84° (February 25, 1930).  In fact, D.C.’s earliest 80° temperature of the year occurred relatively recently on February 21, 2018 (82°).

Despite the colder than average start to the month, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects this month to be both warmer and wetter than average in the D.C. Metro Area.  However, the right ingredients need to come together only once to produce a significant winter storm.