Is another active Atlantic hurricane season coming?

 

Although hurricane season doesn’t officially get underway until June 1, meteorologists and atmospheric scientists have already begun issuing outlooks for the upcoming season. That follows the recent World Meteorological Organization conference that saw three hurricane names from the destructive 2024 season retired (Beryl, Helene and Milton).

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says no El Nino conditions are expected for another season. That means conditions for hurricane development will automatically be more favorable in the tropical Atlantic without the wind shear associated with El Nino conditions.

Water temperatures are warmer than average for much the tropical Atlantic, according to NOAA. Although not as warm as the historically high levels seen in 2024, a warmer than average Atlantic is also conducive for tropical development. Warm, tropical ocean water of 80° or greater to a depth of at least 200’ is typically the benchmark necessary for tropical development, or for a hurricane to maintain its intensity.

Given these conditions, the meteorologists and tropical weather experts at Colorado State University (CSU), led by Dr. Philip Klotzbach, recently issued its April forecast for the upcoming season. They’re expecting a tenth consecutive busier than average season in 2025, with 17 tropical storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 4 major hurricanes.

An “average” Atlantic hurricane season features 14 tropical storms, 7 of which intensify into hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes. That’s based on NOAA’s statistics for the 30-year period of 1991-2020. A “major” hurricane is a Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

More important than the overall number of named storms is where they track once they’ve developed. There have been active seasons with little to no significant impacts from tropical systems in the United States.

There have also been below average seasons when destructive and deadly storms have made landfall. Such was the case during the quiet 1992 season that produced only one major hurricane. However, Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 hurricane that made landfall in the United States on August 24, 1992. Andrew remains one of the costliest natural disasters on record in the United States. 

Fallout from the deadly 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Beryl, July 2024 (Source: NOAA)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had a lot to discuss at their recent spring conference given how active the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was. The WMO Hurricane Committee announced the retirement of three names from last season. There will never be another Atlantic storm with the names Beryl, Helene or Milton. Hurricane names are retired for being deadly or very destructive storms.

Beryl was the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic and had major impacts in the Caribbean last summer. Like Beryl, Helene and Milton were also major hurricanes. However, these hurricanes had catastrophic impacts in the United States.

Helene made landfall as a Category 4 storm along the U.S. Gulf Coast and caused devastating flooding as far north as North Carolina and Tennessee. With a death toll of over 200, Helene was the deadliest hurricane in the United States since Katrina in 2005. 

Hurricane Milton developed in the Gulf of Mexico early last October and quickly intensified. At peak intensity, Milton was a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 180 mph and a minimum central air pressure of 895 millibars. It finished tied with 2005’s Hurricane Rita for fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane and strongest in the Gulf of Mexico, according to NOAA. Fortunately, Milton weakened to Category 3 status by the time it made landfall on Florida’s West Coast. However, widespread damage occurred with dozens of reported fatalities.

When the 2024 list of Atlantic hurricane names is reused in 2030, the names “Brianna,” “Holly,” and “Miguel” will replace “Beryl,” “Helene,” and “Milton.” The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was the ninth consecutive busier than average Atlantic hurricane season.   

April Fools’ Day weather?

 

An April day along the C&O Canal

April is a dynamic weather month in the nation’s capital that can sometimes feature chilly March-like weather. However, summer-like warmth can also occur with highs in the 80s and 90s. 

Average daily high/low temperatures in the nation’s capital range from 62°/43° on April 1 to 73°/53° by April 30. DC’s hottest April temperature of 95° occurred most recently on April 17, 2002. That’s compared to DC’s coldest April temperature of 15° on April 1, 1923. Weather records in the nation’s capital date back to 1871.  

The nation’s capital had 11 warmer than average April’s over the last two decades. April 2017 and April 2019 were DC’s warmest and second warmest on record. Sandwiched in between was April 2018, which finished as DC’s coolest since 1997. That helps illustrate how changeable DC’s spring weather can be from one year to the next.

Washington, D.C. averages 3.21” of April rainfall, according to NOAA. The nation’s capital has seen a high degree of variability in April rainfall in recent years. While April 2020 ranks among DC’s wettest, last April was unusually dry with only 2.06” of rain. 

While showers and thunderstorms become more common as spring wears on, they can occur at any point in April. Showers and storms return to the forecast tomorrow afternoon for the nation’s capital and surrounding suburbs. However, it isn’t expected to be as large a severe weather event as on April 6, 2017, when two tornadoes touched down within DC city limits. Meanwhile, the latest in the spring that measurable snowfall has occurred in the nation’s capital was April 28, 1898 (0.5”).

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center expects this month to finish with near average temperatures and rainfall. That would be in contrast to April 2024 which was DC’s third warmest. It also follows DC’s fourth warmest March that was also drier than average. Eight of the last 12 months have also been drier than average in Washington, D.C. That’s led to severe drought conditions across the DMV, so any rainfall would be beneficial.