A Warm First Half of November

Great November Weather!   Potomac, MD

November has gotten off to a significantly warmer than average start in the Nation’s Capital.  Through November 17, Washington, D.C. has had a monthly average temperature (combined daily highs and lows) of 56.9 degrees – appreciably more than the November average of 49.6 degrees.  According to the National Weather Service, this November has already had five days with highs in the 70s – which is the highest such total since 2006.  Last Friday, November 6^th Washingtonians also enjoyed their first day of 80 degree warmth in November since 2003.

However, winter’s chill can also be felt in November and some may recall a nine day stretch last November when high temperatures in the Nation’s Capital held in the 40s seven times.  That’s more characteristic of the second half of December than November.  Although Washington, D.C. averages 0.5” of snow in November, there hasn’t been measureable snow in November in the Nation’s Capital since 1996.  The largest November snowfall on record in the Nation’s Capital was on Veteran’s Day in 1987 when 11.5” fell. 

While much of the eastern United States has seen above average temperatures so far this month, much of the western United States has seen significant snowfall.  Blizzard warnings were in effect for much of Colorado during the last few days and many ski resorts in the Rocky Mountains opened earlier than expected.  Schools as far south as New Mexico closed this week because of snowfall.  Fortunately, no winter weather is expected in the Mid-Atlantic Region for the rest of the month.  Although some below average temperatures are expected early next week in the Nation’s Capital, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates there is a 40% to 50% chance that much of the East Coast will see near or above average temperatures during the rest of November.

There have been a few severe weather outbreaks this month in the central United States due to a battle between differing air masses.  When cold and dry air interacts with warmer and more humid air, showers and thunderstorms typically ensue.  Such was the case on November 11 when NOAA recorded approximately 166 reports of severe weather, including roughly 18 tornadoes.  A few days later on November 16, another estimated 160 reports of severe weather occurred with more than 40 tornadoes.  These numbers may fluctuate slightly as meteorologists assess the damage to confirm whether or not it was caused by a tornado or a severe wind gust.

Temperatures in November don’t often correlate to what the weather will be like during the entire winter season.  For example, during the winter of 1989-1990, a total of 3.5” of snow fell in Washington, D.C. during the month of November – that was more than January, February and March combined.