Severe Weather in November?

November sees severe weather on occasion  (Source: NOAA)

Although the most severe weather in the United States occurs during the late spring and early summer, the fall sees a secondary, smaller peak in severe weather.  As colder, more winter-like air envelops the country in November, thunderstorms often result when the air masses collide.  Although there have been two noteworthy severe weather outbreaks so far this month, they pale in comparison to November’s largest severe weather events.

On November 16, 2015, there were 169 severe weather reports in the central United States, including 50 tornadoes.  That was less than a week after there were another 166 cases of severe weather that NOAA recorded (including 18 tornadoes).  Fortunately, no fatalities were reported either time.  This month has been significantly warmer than average across much of the eastern and southern United States.  Since the west and upper Midwest has had cooler than average weather, that’s created the ideal setup for showers and thunderstorms.

November’s largest ever severe weather outbreak in the United States came from November 21 – 23, 1992.  That’s when a potent storm spawned a total of 105 tornadoes from Texas to the Carolinas.  Tragically, this severe weather outbreak claimed 26 lives.  The good news is that there aren’t any widespread areas of thunderstorms expected anywhere in the United States during the next few days.

Through November 20, the Nation’s Capital has had a significantly warmer than average month – with an average temperature of 56.8 degrees compared to the average of 49.6 degrees.  Record highs have been set this month from Florida to upstate New York, while significant snow has already fallen in New Mexico and Colorado.  Although late November occasionally features warmer than average temperatures, there have been more instances of blustery and cold weather around the Thanksgiving holiday. 

High temperatures are expected to be only near 50 degrees tomorrow compared to the daily average high of 55 degrees.  Monday is poised to be even colder in the Nation’s Capital with highs only in the mid-40s.  The last time the temperature failed to reach 50 degrees in the Nation’s Capital was on March 29^th when the high was only 49 degrees.  I will devote an upcoming column on the likelihood of snow on Thanksgiving in the Nation’s Capital.  In the meantime, my colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather team will keep you apprised of the Mid-Atlantic Region’s coldest weather of the fall season.