Just How Warm has this November Been?

Lots of great weather to be outdoors in November 2015  (Glen Echo, MD)

Most of the southern and eastern United States has seen a warmer than average November.  Closer to home, the Nation’s Capital has had one of its warmest November’s on record.   This month’s average temperature in Washington, D.C. (combining daily highs and lows) is 53.7 degrees.  According to the National Weather Service, that makes this the 5^th warmest November record in the Nation’s Capital – where weather records go back to 1871.

This month has featured a total of six days with highs in the 70s, including one day with 80 degree warmth.  That was the first time it’s been at least 80 degrees in Washington, D.C. in November since 2003.  The warmest temperature this month in the Nation’s Capital came on November 6, when it was 80 degrees.  The coldest temperature was 32 degrees on November 23.

Thanksgiving saw a high temperature of 64 degrees at National Airport – the official weather reporting site for the Nation’s Capital.  Although three of the last five Thanksgivings have seen temperatures in the 60s in Washington, D.C., the average high on November 26 is only 54 degrees.  That made this Thanksgiving the warmest in the Nation’s Capital since 2007, when it was 77 degrees.  For Washingtonians, the coolest Thanksgiving in recent memory came on November 28, 2013 when the high temperature was only 40 degrees. 

For much of the month there has been a persistent area of high pressure that’s dominated the weather across most of the eastern United States.  That’s helped pump milder area northward from the southeastern U.S.  The same area of high pressure has helped suppress rainfall for much of the month, as November has been drier than average with only 2.1” of rain in Washington, D.C.  That’s compared to a monthly average of 3.17” of rain.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is expecting a greater than 50% chance of above average temperatures to continue through the first half of December.  My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather team will keep you apprised of the latest weather forecasts both on-air and online.

Top Five Warmest Novembers in Washington, D.C. (in degrees Fahrenheit) 

1.  54.8 (2001)
2.  54.4 (1975)
3.  54.3 (1985)
4.  54.0 (1931)
5.  53.7 (2015)

Hurricane Season Comes to a Close

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season  (Source: NOAA)

The 2015 hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean ends on Monday.  This season’s forecast for a near average season proved to be a good one.  There were a total of 11 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes compared to the seasonal average of 10, 6 and 2 respectively. 

The first storm of the season, Tropical Storm Ana, formed on May 8, while the final storm was Hurricane Kate which dissipated on November 12.  The strongest storm of the season was Hurricane Joaquin – at peak intensity, Joaquin was a borderline Category 4 – Category 5 hurricane (with sustained winds of 155 mph on October 3).  As some will recall, Joaquin tragically caused dozens of fatalities and significant damage in the Bahamas.

Although Joaquin was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since 2010, the Atlantic has had its third consecutive near or quieter than average season.  That’s especially significant following the 17-year period (1995 – 2012) that the Atlantic Ocean saw above average hurricane activity.  According to the National Hurricane Center, no Category 5 hurricane has formed in the Atlantic since 2007.  No “major” (Category 3 or higher) hurricane has made landfall in the United States since October 2005. 

Climate scientists and tropical meteorologists attribute the largely quiet 2015 season to the emergence of a strong El Nino in the eastern Pacific Ocean.  That helped created more favorable conditions in the tropical East Pacific (off the west coast of Mexico), where there was an above average hurricane season.  Although hurricane season there ended November 15, Sandra was named a tropical storm on November 23 and became a Category 4 hurricane – the latest in the season a hurricane has reached that intensity. 

There have been non-El Nino years when the circumstances were flipped and the Atlantic Ocean saw more tropical activity than the eastern Pacific Ocean.  Such was the case in 1995, which was one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record in the Atlantic Ocean (with 19 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes).  Meanwhile, only 10 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes formed that year in the eastern Pacific Ocean – far below the annual average.