Is D.C. in for a Winter Surprise ?

 

DC residents experienced a significant milestone on January 25 with 0.3” of snow.  That was the first accumulating snowfall in the Nation’s Capital in more than a year since January 18, 2020 (0.2”).  However, DC’s streak without a snowfall of at least half an inch is fast approaching two-years.  DC residents haven’t had a half of an inch of snow since February 20, 2019. 

Although meteorological winter starts on December 1 and goes through February 28, the Nation’s Capital had its fair share of March snowfall over the last decade.  Dating back to the 2010-2011 winter season, DC had six winters with below average snowfall (15.4” based on 1981-2010 statistics at National Airport).  Meanwhile, March was DC’s snowiest month of the year in four of the last 10 years.

With the exception of the 2015-2016 and 2018-2019 winters when the DC Metro Area had epic winter storms, the major snow events of the last decade have occurred in either February or March.  Three consecutive winters from 2012-2013 through 2014-2015 featured colder and snowier than average March’s.  The 2013-2014 winter season, in particular, featured several prolonged stretches of unusually cold weather in the Nation’s Capital.  To add to that, February and March 2014 each had double-digit DC snowfall totals.  Also, March 2014 produced DC’s snowiest St. Patrick’s Day on record and was also DC’s snowiest March since 1960. 

Three of the last four winters saw below average snowfall in the Nation’s Capital.  However, March 2018 was a snowier than average month with 4.5” (more than triple DC’s March average of 1.3”).  Two key lessons can be drawn from this.  Whether or not December and January have below average snowfall has little bearing on how cold or snowy February and March will be.  That depends on whether or not there’s a shift in the overall weather pattern.  The right ingredients need to come together just once to produce a major winter storm.

Also, even if Washingtonians finish with below average snowfall for the entire winter, accumulating snowfall can occur well into March.  Such was the case with 4.1” in the Nation’s Capital on March 21, 2018.  That’s why it’s important for DC Area winter weather enthusiasts to not give up hope despite nearly two years without appreciable snowfall.  My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 Weather Team are watching the prospect of another winter storm on Sunday into Monday.