Can January’s Weather Pivot ?

Longing for Snow ?

2021 has gotten off to a milder than average start in the Nation’s Capital.  Temperatures haven’t fallen below freezing downtown since December 30.  Can there be a significant change in DC’s weather from warm and wet to cold and winter-like?  The short answer is yes and below are several good examples in the last 25 years.

2018:  January got off to a frigid start for much of the eastern United States.  The Nation’s Capital had below average temperatures on the first eight consecutive days of the month.  The 12-day stretch of December 27, 2017 through January 7, 2018 ended up being the coldest stretch of the entire winter.  The warmest it got during that nearly two week-period was 35° with high temperatures remaining at or below freezing on nine days. 

However, there was a major shift in the weather pattern as 11 of the final 14 days of the month finished warmer than average.  That enabled January 2018 to finish only 0.3° below average in the Nation’s Capital.  Despite the cold start to the month, January 2018 finished with only 1.2” of snow – well below the monthly average of 5.6”

2016:  January 2016 is largely remembered for DC’s fourth largest snowstorm, which occurred on January 22-23.  However, it’s easy to forget that December 2015 and the first half of January 2016 were unusually warm.  Washingtonians also had the latest first accumulating snowfall on record when 0.3” occurred on January 17.  Similar to January 2018’s start, January 2016 finished with 11 of 14 colder than average days.  That led the month to finish 1.1° colder than average.  It was also DC’s eighth snowiest January with 18.8”.

2000:  This January got off to a warm start in the Nation’s Capital with highs of at least 52° on 10 of the first 16 days of the month.  That includes four days in the 60s and one day highs that reached the low 70s.  Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for parts of the DC Metro Area on January 11.  There was a major shift in the weather pattern for the second half of the month with highs that remained below freezing on seven days.  A snowy second half of January resulted in 14.5” of snow for the month – nearly triple the monthly average.  Most of that occurred on January 25 with 9.3” at National Airport.

1996:  Longtime Washingtonians remember this January for one of the largest snowstorms on record that occurred during the Federal Government shutdown.  Highs remained below freezing on six of the seven days between January 6 and January 12.  DC’s sixth largest snowstorm of 17.3” was on January 6-7 with another 4.1” on January 12.  Adding insult to injury was the rapid warmup soon after, when high temperatures ranged from 50° on January 17 to 62° on January 19.  This led to significant flooding.  Despite the rapid warmup, January 1996 finished 3.1° colder than average and remains DC’s third snowiest January on record.