Will the Nation’s Capital see Snow ?

 

Longtime Washingtonians may recall that today is the 21^st anniversary of what was dubbed DC’s “Surprise Snowstorm.”  That coastal storm was originally expected to track harmlessly out to sea, but instead brought the DC Metro Area 9” to 15” of snow.  Unfortunately, this occurred prior to the widespread usage of social media, so unless viewers watched the 11:00 p.m. forecast on January 24, they woke up to a wintry surprise on January 25.

Currently, there are two key weather trends in the Nation’s Capital.  The first is a record stretch during which DC hasn’t fallen below 22°.  The last time temperatures fell to 21° or colder was on February 2, 2019 (18°).  The coldest it has been so far this winter at National Airport, DC’s official weather reporting station, was 23° on December 26.  Not only has it not been very cold at all so far this winter, but it’s actually been unusually mild.  Saturday, January 23 was DC’s first colder than average day in nearly a month.  Yesterday was also colder than average, giving Washingtonians the first instance of consecutive colder than average days since December 26-27.

Of course, it doesn’t have to been colder than average for a significant snow event to occur in the DC Metro Area.  But that’s something else that hasn’t happened recently either.  The last time Washingtonians had even a half an inch of snow was February 20, 2019 (2.6”).  That continues an epic snow drought in the Nation’s Capital, with 24 consecutive months since DC’s last snowier than average month (January 2019). 

What separates DC’s current stretch of below average snowfall from similar streaks is that past stretches haven’t been as extreme as this one.  For example, DC had a similar two-year stretch of below average snowfall from February 2011 – February 2013, but Washingtonians had 1.7” of snow in January 2012.  That was unlike DC’s current stretch of relatively snow-free weather.

In addition to today’s storm that will continue into tonight and tomorrow, my colleagues and I are watching the potential for more winter weather late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  Whether or not any accumulating snowfall occurs within DC city limits this week, appreciable snowfall can occur in the DC Metro Area well into March.  The winter could finish as a warmer and drier than average season, but the right ingredients only need to come together once to produce a significant winter storm.  The trend just hasn’t been favorable so far in the 2020-2021 winter for DC Area snow enthusiasts.