A closer look at Atlantic hurricane cycles

 

Sunset at Pine Island Beach, Florida

Although it isn’t over yet, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has already done something that hasn’t occurred since 1935. That’s the last time the season’s first three hurricanes each achieved major, Category 3 status. More broadly, the 30-year period in the tropical Atlantic from 1995 – 2024 was busier than average.

An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 tropical storms, of which 7 become hurricanes and 3 become major hurricanes, according to NOAA. A “major” hurricane has sustained winds of at least 111 mph making it a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An active season or two by itself doesn’t mean very much, just like a quiet season or two doesn’t indicate a trend. That’s why it’s important to look at longer periods of time when trying to determine whether or not a pattern exists. 

The last 30 years, for example, saw an average of 15.8 named tropical storms, 7.8 hurricanes and 3.6 major hurricanes.  That includes at least one Category 5 hurricane every other year. Three seasons in the last 30 years (2023, 2020 and 2005) had at least 20 named tropical storms. Another four had 19 tropical storms (starting in 1995). There have also been several quiet seasons in the last three decades such as in 1997, 2009 and 2013, but those were the exception.

Two shorter periods stand out for different reasons over the last 30 years. A total of eight Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes developed during the five-year period from 2003 – 2007, with a seasonal record of four in 2005. Another 12 Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes developed since 2016, including Erin and Humberto this season.

By comparison, the 30-year period from 1965 – 1994 was much quieter in the tropical Atlantic with an average of 9.9 tropical storms, 5.3 hurricanes and 1.6 major hurricanes. The busiest season during these three decades occurred in 1969 with 18 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. The most infamous hurricane of the 1969 season was Hurricane Camille, which remains one of only four Category 5’s that made landfall in the United States.

Hurricanes don’t have to be major to be high impact. North Carolina hasn’t had a major hurricane landfall since 1996, but has seen multiple lesser hurricane landfalls since then (Floyd (1999), Isabel (2003), Irene (2011) and Isaias (2020). Coincidently, these four hurricanes also had significant impacts on the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia) after making landfall in North Carolina.