Following a Record Setting December, What Can We Expect in January?

Great Falls, MD   (December 2015)

January is poised to feature more seasonal weather in the Mid-Atlantic Region, following the warmest December on record in many cities across the eastern U.S.  NOAA’s January outlook is for an equal chance of above or below average temperatures and precipitation in the DC Metro Region.   The average high and low temperatures in the Nation’s Capital on January 1 and 31 are 44/28, respectively.

January’s warmest temperature on record at National Airport was 79 degrees on January 26, 1950, while the coldest day was January 1, 1881 when it was -14 degrees.  January averages 5.6” of snow in the Nation’s Capital.  January 2015 was slightly colder (0.4 degrees) than average and saw below average snowfall (3.6”), but was almost an inch wetter than normal with 3.73” of rain.  However, most people are still talking about just how warm it was during the final two months of 2015.

December 2015 shattered the previous record of 45.6 degrees as the warmest on record with a monthly average (combining daily high and low temperatures) temperature of 51.2 degrees. More impressive is the fact that the Nation’s Capital experienced 32 degrees or colder temperatures twice last month, while high temperatures reached the 70s on three occasions.  According to the National Weather Service, temperatures have only been at or below freezing three times since November 1 in the Nation’s Capital – the lowest such total on record.  No snow was observed last month in the Nation’s Capital for the first time since December 2001.

Some may wonder if a warmer than average December is a reliable indicator of what the rest of the winter will be like.  The weather pattern that made November and December so warm in the eastern United States was atypical and isn’t a good predictor.  For example, while last month was the 5^th consecutive warmer than average December, the last two January’s have been colder than average in Washington, D.C.  According to NOAA, Washingtonians should expect near average conditions for most of January.

Warmest Decembers on Record (Degrees Fahrenheit)

      1.  51.2 (2015)

      2.  45.6 (1984)

      3.  45.6 (1889)

      4.  45.5 (2001)

      5.  45.5 (1982)

      6.  45.5 (1971)