When Might Washingtonians see Snow?

Record Mid-Atlantic Snowfall in December 2009

Although this winter has gotten off to a warmer than average start – including the warmest December on record in many eastern cities – January has featured less extreme temperatures.  Through January 11, temperatures have been approximately two degrees warmer than average at the DC-Baltimore area’s three major airports.  Snow lovers have been quite disappointed. 

In fact, Washington, D.C. set a record last week for the latest in the winter without any snowfall downtown.  The previous record for latest snowfall in the Nation’s Capital was January 6, 2002.  However, that streak could end this afternoon as an “Alberta Clipper” passes through the Mid-Atlantic Region bringing the possibility of some snow in spots.  It may even come down heavily for a short time in places, primarily north of the Nation’s Capital – just enough to bring Washingtonians their first snowfall of 2016.  Washington’s last measureable snowfall was last winter (4.8” occurred at National Airport on March 5, 2015).

Some may wonder if winter storms are ranked similar to the way hurricanes and tornadoes are.  Hurricanes intensity is ranked on the Saffir-Simpon Scale, while tornadoes are ranked on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.  Meteorologists Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini created a similar scale to measure winter storms.  Known as the “Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale” or NESIS, it’s also a 1 to 5 scale.  A Category 1 winter storm is “Notable,” while a Category 5 is “Extreme.”

Ironically, the 20^th anniversary of Washington, D.C.’s fifth largest snowstorm on record was just this past week (also on January 6).  Longtime Washingtonians will remember that storm as a crippling event that closed schools for a week or more.  While the 1995-1996 winter remains the third snowiest on record in the Nation’s Capital, this winter couldn’t be more different. 

This winter’s significant El Nino has helped make conditions less favorable for cold and snow in this part of the country.  Snow lovers and winter weather enthusiasts shouldn’t fret, though, as a strong El Nino doesn’t necessarily preclude a major winter storm.  For example, the Mid-Atlantic Region had one of its largest snowstorms in February 1983 – during another major El Nino episode.  It only takes one storm under ideal circumstances to create appreciable snowfall in the Washington, D.C. – Baltimore corridor.