How Big a Punch Will This Storm Pack?

This major winter storm is easy to identify in the eastern U.S. (Source: NOAA)

Residents of the Washington, D.C. – Baltimore region have hunkered down for the area’s largest snowstorm in at least six years.  Some may wonder how often significant snowfall occurs during an El Nino winter in this part of the country.  Although November and December were warmer than average in Washington, D.C., more winter-like weather has certainly returned this month. 

Our current storm has been anticipated for several days by meteorologists as the computer models have done a pretty remarkable job.  It’s unusual for the models to be as consistent as they have been so far in advance.  With just enough cold air in place and ample moisture for the storm to draw upon – from both the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico – historic snowfall is likely.  Storm totals of 18” to 24” are likely for the immediate DC-Baltimore corridor with higher amounts on the west side of town.  The last snowfall of this magnitude in the Nation’s Capital came roughly six years ago in February 2010. 

It’s interesting to note that a few of the top 10 snowfalls on record in both Washington, D.C. and Baltimore have occurred during episodes of El Nino.  The current El Nino is one of the strongest on record – comparable to the 1997-1998 and 1982-1983 El Nino events.  However, unlike the 1997-1998 winter season, Washingtonians experienced a major winter storm during the 1982-1983 winter. 

The storm total of 16.6” that occurred in Washington, D.C. on February 10-11, 1983, was the 4^th largest snowfall on record at the time.  That illustrates that major snowfall does sometimes occur in the Mid-Atlantic Region during a very strong El Nino.  More recently, the 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 winters had moderate intensity El Nino events, yet three of Washington’s top ten snowfalls occurred during those two winters.  The February 2010 “Snowmageddon” storm was the largest among them.  According to the National Weather Service, that storm is currently the 4^th largest snowstorm on record in the Nation’s Capital with a total of 17.8”.

Weather records in the Nation’s Capital are kept at National Airport and snowfall values there are typically lower than in areas north and west of the city.  With 18” to 24” of snow a good bet with this storm downtown (and amounts of 30” or more possible in areas north and west of downtown) that would put this storm fairly high on the top ten snowfall – potentially even among the top five largest snowstorms in Washington, D.C.

My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather team will continue to keep you apprised on the latest weather updates.  Please share any snow pictures you’ve taken either as a comment to this story or on the “Wide World of Weather” Facebook page.