What do January 2016 and January 2019 have in Common ?

It has been only three short years since the record “Blizzard of 2016.”  A total of 17.8” of snow was observed at National Airport from January 22-23, 2016.  That tied the February 2010 “Snowmageddon” storm for DC’s fourth largest on record.  To add to that, 20” – 30” snow totals were common three years ago.  By comparison, January 2017 and January 2018 saw a combined 2.6” of snow (less than half of DC’s January average of 5.6”).

Fortunately for local snow lovers, the Nation’s Capital experienced its first 10”/+ since the January 2016 storm earlier this month.  The 10.3” that fell from January 12 – 14, 2019 was DC’s ninth largest January snowstorm on record.  It also made this month only the eighth snowier than average January out of the last 20.

January 2016 and January 2019 are not only similar for having above average snowfall, but also for getting off to a milder than average start.  With the exception of the 1.4” of snow in Washington, D.C. in November 2018, the 2015/2016 and 2018/2019 winters experienced a very similar first six weeks.  December 2015 and December 2018 were both milder and wetter than average with no snow in either month.  The first measurable snowfall of the 2015-2016 winter didn’t occur until January 17.  This month’s first snowfall was the January 12 – 14 event when snowfall was reported at National Airport for 35 consecutive hours.

Despite these similarities, there is a major difference between the 2015/2016 winter and this winter.  The 2015/2016 winter season featured a very strong episode of El Nino, similar to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Nino events.  By comparison, NOAA reported “ENSO-neutral continued during December 2018…”  ENSO refers to the “El Nino Southern Oscillation” that could be in an El Nino or La Nina phase or be “neutral” without the presence of either.  

One of El Nino’s hallmarks in the United States during the winter months is an active southern branch of the jet stream.  If an area of low pressure develops along the southern branch of the jet stream along the U.S. Gulf Coast / southeastern Atlantic Coast and tracks up the East Coast concurrent to an outbreak of arctic air, then a major winter storm could ensue.  That’s what happened in January 2016 and February 1983 when DC experienced its seventh largest snowstorm (16.6”).  Meanwhile, the right ingredients never came together for a significant snow event in the Nation’s Capital during the mild and wet 1997-1998 winter season.

Winter weather enthusiasts no doubt remember the record storm from three years ago and appreciate the snow that occurred earlier this month.  Longtime Washingtonians know how rare double-digit snowfalls are (with only five such occurrences in the last 20 years).  That said, the right ingredients have to come together only once to produce a winter storm capable of making ardent snow-lovers happy.