DC’s First Winter Storm of 2019

WUSA9's "Final Call" Snow Forecast Map

DC’s storm this weekend is likely to be its most significant winter storm since January 2016.  That’s when Washingtonians experienced the fourth largest snowstorm on record.  However, unlike three years ago this storm won’t be record setting by any stretch.

The last two January’s had significantly below average snowfall in Washington, D.C. with 1.4” in January 2017 and 1.2” last January.  By comparison, January 2016 had a total of 18.8”, the bulk of which occurred during the “Blizzard of 2016” (17.8”).  The Nation’s Capital averages 5.7” of snow in January, according to NOAA.  It’s worth noting that this weekend’s snowfall will also be DC’s first measurable snowfall since 1.4” accumulated on November 15, 2018.

The weather setup for this storm is traditional in the sense that the Mid-Atlantic Region transitioned to a colder air mass two days prior to the storm’s arrival in the eastern United States.  An area of high pressure located in the northeastern United States has allowed a sufficient amount of cold air to filter into the DC Metro Area.  That will keep the precipitation predominantly snow from the immediate DC Metro Area to points west.  Although the current storm we’re watching began to take shape in the southwestern United States, as opposed to developing along the southeast or Gulf Coasts, the track will be adequate to bring enough moisture to the Nation’s Capital for snow to occur. 

Consequently, Washingtonians are in for a respectable January snowstorm with several inches of snow expected.  That should put Washington, D.C. near January’s monthly snowfall average.  That’s something which has occurred during only seven of the last 20 January’s dating back to 1999.  However, January 2016 was DC’s eighth snowiest on record.

The overall weather pattern so far this winter (2018-2019) has been similar to the 2015-2016 one that featured DC’s warmest December on record, as well as a mild start to January.  January 2016 had a significant shift in the weather pattern in the middle of the month that gave way to a cold and snowy second half.  December 2015 and December 2018 were both two of only three Decembers during the last 20 years when Washington, D.C. had no snow whatsoever.  Whether or not this winter ends up being snowier than average like the 2015-2016 remains to be seen.  Regardless, this weekend’s winter storm should please DC Area snow-lovers without causing the consternation that winter precipitation invariably causes commuters during the workweek.

Last time 1”/+ of January snow occurred at:

Washington, D.C., National Airport (DCA): 1” (January 30, 2017)
Dulles Airport, Sterling, Virginia (IAD): 22.1” (January 23, 2016)
Baltimore, Maryland, BWI Airport (BWI): 1.3” (January 17, 2018)

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Last time 5”/+ of January snow occurred at:

DCA: January 23, 2016 (11.5”)
IAD: January 23, 2016 (22.1”)
BWI: January 23, 2016 (25.5”)