How Does February 2016 Measure Up?

February 2016 Brought Below Average Snow

I find it ironic that today is leap day.  That’s because this is the first time since the last leap year in 2012 that Washington, D.C. hasn’t had a colder than average February.  The weather this month has been very changeable with extremely cold weather in addition to spring-like warmth and severe weather.
 

This month’s weather can be broken into roughly three distinct parts.  The first eight days of February featured above average temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic Region.  That was followed by a shift in the position of the jet stream which ushered in the longest stretch of subfreezing temperatures that Washingtonians have experienced since 2004.  Although no record lows were set, temperatures remained below freezing in the Nation’s Capital from February 11 – 15.  The coldest temperature to occur in the Nation’s Capital this month was on Valentine’s Day when it was only 13 degrees.  This month’s warmest temperature was 65 degrees and it occurred four times – most recently on February 29.

Through February 15, the average monthly temperature in Washington, D.C. was more than two degrees colder than average.  However, another significant shift in the weather pattern followed with warmer than average temperatures dominating the final third of the month.  Last February was the coldest in Washington, D.C. since 1979.  By comparison, this February will finish with above average temperatures on seven of its final nine days.  The Nation’s Capital will also finish February 2016 with an average monthly temperature nearly a full degree warmer than average.

Only 3.1” of snow fell this month at National Airport, making this the first time since 2013 Washingtonians have had below average February snowfall.  This month was also significant because there were more than 500 reported cases of severe weather from Florida to Maine on February 24.  The National Weather Service confirmed that eight tornadoes occurred in Virginia as part of this severe weather outbreak – and tragically caused four fatalities.

The end of February marks the end of meteorological winter in the Northern Hemisphere.  Despite the warmer than average start to the 2015-2016 winter, 21.9 inches of snow still occurred – greater than the seasonal average of 15.4 inches.  Although measureable snow has occurred during the previous three Marchs in the Nation’s Capital, area residents tired of winter’s chill can look forward to the arrival of the world-famous cherry blossoms along the Tidal Basin.    

How Destructive a Winter Has it Been?

Washington, D.C. had rare February severe weather in 2016  (Source: NOAA)

As meteorological winter comes to a close, this is a good time to look at how it compares to average.  As many will recall, the month of December was the warmest on record in the Nation’s Capital and for much of the eastern United States.  December was also a wetter than average month in Washington, D.C.

Although January will be remembered for the “Blizzard of 2016” in the Mid-Atlantic Region, February 2016 will primarily be remembered for two weather events.  The first was the severe weather outbreak that occurred on February 24 when more than 500 cases were reported up and down the east coast.  These included a handful of tornadoes in Virginia and North Carolina that were especially tragic due to the fatalities that occurred.  This week’s outbreak was the largest February severe weather outbreak since 2008.

February 2016 also saw the coldest stretch in Washington, D.C. in more than a decade when temperatures remained below freezing for five consecutive days.  February has been a very streaky month with regard to temperatures.  Aside from that five-day period (February 11 – 15) that was appreciably colder than average, this month has seen temperatures largely at or above normal with nine days in the 40s, six days in the 50s and four days in the 60s through February 25.  As a result, temperatures will finish close to the monthly February average.

While the month of January finished within 1.1 degrees of average, last month also featured streaky weather.  The first snowfall of the winter didn’t occur until January 12 when a few flakes fell at National Airport.  With the exception of a five-day stretch (when temperatures remained below freezing on four days) the month didn’t feature any sustained colder than average weather.  The “Blizzard of 2016” also made January 2016 one of the snowiest January’s on record in the Nation’s Capital. 

According to the National Weather Service, if you take away the 17.8 inches from the blizzard, Washingtonians have had only 4.1” of snow – less than a third of the average seasonal snowfall.  All it takes is one significant winter storm – or severe weather outbreak – to make it a record setting or destructive season.

Time to think “Severe”?

NOAA's Severe Weather Outlook for February 23

Average temperatures and the amount of daylight increase markedly during the second half of February in advance of meteorological spring which arrives March 1.  As the transition from winter to spring gets underway, the United States typically sees an uptick in the amount of thunderstorms that can be “severe.”

According to NOAA, the criteria that makes a thunderstorm severe includes the presence of any of the following: wind gusts of at least 58 mph, hail at least one inch in diameter, or a tornado.  Neither heavy rain nor lightning can make a thunderstorm “severe.”  Although, February isn’t normally one of the busier severe weather months, it sometimes becomes one.

Significant severe weather outbreaks have occurred in recent years during the latter half of February.  For example, on February 21, 2014, there was a significant severe weather outbreak with more than 100 reported cases from Florida to the DC Metro Region.  Tornadoes are relatively uncommon in the Mid-Atlantic Region at any point of the year and especially during the month of February.  That fact made the two reported tornadoes all the more unusual (one in south central Virginia and the other in St. Mary’s County, Maryland).

On February 28, 2011, there was a larger severe weather outbreak with almost 300 reported cases – including 18 tornadoes – from Alabama to Pennsylvania.  Tragically, one of these tornadoes caused a fatality in Tennessee.  There was another deadly severe weather outbreak on February 22-23, 1998.  Atmospheric conditions were favorable for tornadoes in central Florida, where seven touched down and claimed 42 lives.  What made this outbreak so deadly was its timing since the tornadoes occurred between 10:30 p.m. and 2:30 a.m. when most people were asleep.

Knowing the basics of severe weather and what to do in the event a watch or warning is issued for your area is very important.  Fortunately, education and technology, including NOAA weather radios and smart phone apps, are effective tools that can be used to ensure safety.  Meteorologists and local authorities are also able to use social media to more effectively communicate the latest weather watches and warnings.