The Coldest Weather in Three Years?

NOAA's temperature outlook for next week

Washingtonians who don’t like prolonged stretches of colder than average weather have been remarkably lucky so far this winter – with the exception of last month’s “Blizzard of 2016.”  Besides December 2015 being the warmest on record in the Nation’s Capital, a record was set for latest in the season that the first snowflakes fell (January 12).  The irony is that last month ultimately became the second snowiest January on record at National Airport.

Through yesterday, this month has been 5.3 degrees warmer than average in Washington, D.C.  The coldest temperature so far this month was 28 degrees on February 6.  However, there is going to be a major shift in the weather pattern as the jet stream takes a significant plunge across the eastern United States.  That will usher in the coldest weather of the season for the Mid-Atlantic Region.

Dating back to 2009, five of the last seven winters have featured at least one three-day stretch where temperatures held at or below freezing in Washington, D.C.  The last time that occurred was nearly a year ago from February 19 - 21, 2015.  However, it is unusual to have four or more such days.  That’s exactly what Washingtonians are faced with starting tomorrow.  While temperatures will approach the freezing mark on Friday, temperatures aren’t expected to rise above freezing after today until next Monday. 

The last time there were four or more consecutive days where temperatures held at or below freezing in Washington, D.C. was after the last Presidential Inauguration from January 22 to January 25, 2013.  Prior to that, the last time that happened in the Nation’s Capital was in February 2007.  Over the last 20 years the longest period where temperatures have held below freezing in the Nation’s Capital was a six-day stretch in January 2004.

That’s what makes the next few days so interesting.  My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather team expect temperatures to remain at or below freezing starting tonight and through the weekend in the DC Metro Region.  This month will also make a 180 degree shift from warmer to much colder than average.  However, unlike last February, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects the cold over the next few days to be relatively short-lived.  NOAA indicates there is 40% to 50% chance of above average temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic Region from February 17 – 23.