What Can You Expect In February?

NOAA's Temperature Outlook for February

Although Groundhog Day is a key part of weather folklore (and was made into a classic 1990s comedy starring Bill Murray), there are more accurate ways of predicting the weather.  The most famous groundhog, “Punxsutawney Phil,” and his predecessors have been predicting the weather for over 100 years!  Since 1887, he has seen his shadow 102 times, meaning “six more weeks of winter” were in store.  Although Phil’s “forecasts” aren’t known for their accuracy, the accuracy of weather forecasts made by humans have improve dramatically.

In Washington, D.C., February 1 has an average high and low temperature of 44/29, while February 29 averages 51 and 34 degrees respectively.  The warmest February temperature on record was 84 degrees on February 25, 1930.  February’s coldest temperature was -15 degrees on February 15, 1899.  Both temperatures predated National Airport which opened in 1941.  Since then, the warmest and coldest February temperatures observed at National Airport were 82 degrees on February 28, 1948 and 5 degrees which occurred twice – most recently on February 20, 2015.

According to the National Weather Service, February is the snowiest month of the year in the Nation’s Capital and averages 5.7” – narrowly ahead of January.  Seven of Washington, D.C.’s 10 largest snowstorms have occurred in February.  The second largest snowstorm on record occurred from February 12-14, 1899 when 20.0”.  Meanwhile, the largest snowstorm to occur at National Airport (and Washington, D.C.’s third largest overall) was on February 18-19, 1979, when 18.7” of snow fell.  Fortunately, for those tired of winter weather, there are no major winter storms are on the horizon in the Nation’s Capital.

This month has gotten off to a significantly warmer than average start in the Mid-Atlantic Region.  That’s helped the snowpack from the “Blizzard of 2016” melt rapidly.  Significantly warmer than average temperatures are expected tomorrow as temperatures are poised to reach the low 60s.  On the other hand, a significant winter storm is bringing the central United States heavy snow – and blizzard conditions in spots.  The same system will bring appreciable rainfall to the DC Metro Region tomorrow.  More seasonal temperatures will return Thursday. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for February is for a slight chance of greater than average temperatures for northern portions of the DC Metro Region – closer to the Mason-Dixon Line.  That should be welcome news for many since the last three Februarys have been colder than average.  Just this morning, “Punxsutawney Phil” saw no shadow meaning people can expect an early spring.  However, the last time he called for an early spring in 2013, March saw above average snowfall in the Nation’s Capital.  So people can accept Phil’s forecast for an early spring for its sentimental value – but not necessarily it’s accuracy.